India holds Russian crude purchases steady as US trade pressure builds

India holds Russian crude purchases steady as US trade pressure builds India stayed the second-largest buyer of Russian oil after China through May, keeping discounted barrels flowing even as Washington pressed New Delhi to pull back. India kept buying. Through May it stayed the second-largest buyer of Russian crude after China, keeping discounted barrels flowing into its refineries even as Washington pressed New Delhi to curb purchases that fund Moscow's war effort.⁵ The pressure is real. President Donald Trump has tied his demand for smaller trade surpluses to higher US energy purchases across Asia, yet Indian buyers have shown no rush to swap cheap Russian oil for pricier American grades.⁵ Price explains the calculus. ICE Brent crude front-month traded at $83.56 on Monday (2026-06-15), with Urals, the Russian grade Indian refiners favour, at $78.39, a discount wide enough to keep plants leaning on Russian feedstock.⁵ Indian refineries ran at a crude intake near 5.57 million barrels per day in April, JODI data show, close to full tilt.⁵ China, the larger buyer, is the wild card. Chinese crude imports surged about 16% year-on-year in January and February to almost 12 million barrels per day, then dropped roughly 20% year-on-year in April to a four-year low, with seaborne arrivals falling to 8 million barrels per day, the weakest since 2022.² China has built an estimated 1.2 to 1.3 billion barrels of crude reserves, the largest national inventory anywhere, which lets it throttle imports without straining supply.² When Chinese buying sags, steady Indian intake keeps Russian cargoes moving.² Russia's exports are shrinking, not growing. Volumes fell 9% from 2020 to 2022 and a further 13% from 2022 to 2024 as sanctions closed off Western markets and rerouting raised shipping and insurance costs.¹ India has absorbed part of that slack across fuels; Russia's coal exports to India alone climbed from about 9.1 million short tons in 2020 to 24.8 million in 2024, EIA data show.¹ Even a US ally has come back. Japan resumed Russian oil imports after an eight-month gap, S&P Global Platts reported in the week of 2026-05-18, citing the country's trade ministry.⁶ American sanctions have still squeezed Russia's logistics, pushing traders to find new tanker routes and forcing some operators out of the business.⁴ The barrels keep finding buyers anyway, moved through ship-to-ship transfers and gaps in tanker transponder data.³ The clearer risk is political. If Washington escalates trade measures against New Delhi, India may signal a pullback even if shipped volumes barely change.⁵ For now the gap between Urals and Brent does the talking, and while it holds Indian refiners have every reason to keep buying.⁵ Watch whether Chinese imports recover from April's four-year low.² Weak Chinese demand leaves Russia more reliant on Indian refiners, and that dependence is what sets the floor under Urals.²