Asia runs coal harder as supply scares override the renewables push

Asia runs coal harder as supply scares override the renewables push Coal is gaining across Asia after the Strait of Hormuz scare, even as China's falling imports complicate the comeback story. India's peak power demand reached a record 257 GW, with coal-fired plants supplying more than 75% during peak load, according to grid data.² The country imports roughly 60% of its LNG through the Strait of Hormuz, and high gas prices have pushed buyers toward cheaper domestic coal instead.² The pull toward coal is showing up across the region. Coal imports from Russia to India jumped 95% in the first quarter of the year.² In South Korea, the government scrapped a spring regulatory cap that had limited coal plants to 80% capacity, and nuclear reactors were pushed to as much as 80% utilization to guard against supply risk.² The trigger was price. After disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz sent global fuel costs higher, Southeast Asian governments scrambled to stabilize supply and ran coal plants harder.⁵ "The shift will impose substantial environmental and public health costs," said Dinita Setyawati, senior energy analyst at Ember.¹ Analysts read the move as a reflex, not a redirection. "We see this shift as largely a short-term response rather than a long-term direction," said Alnie Demoral, a Southeast Asia analyst.⁵ Some argue the crisis could ultimately accelerate renewable deployment by exposing how dependent the region is on imported fuel.¹ China complicates the picture. Its coal imports fell 6% year-on-year in March 2025 to 38.73 million tonnes, the lowest in years, according to customs data.⁴ First-quarter imports totaled 114.85 million tonnes, down 0.9% from a year earlier, even after record January-February buying of 76.12 million tonnes.⁴ The decline reflects weak demand, high port inventories and a push toward self-sufficiency. Domestic dispatch averaged 11.66 million tonnes a day in late 2024 as mines lifted output, and narrowing import margins gave buyers reason to favor local coal over seaborne cargoes.⁴ Yet China keeps building new coal capacity while leading the world in wind and solar additions, and that balance will largely decide whether global emissions peak this decade.⁶ The money meant to retire coal early is moving slowly. The G7's Just Energy Transition Partnership, launched in 2021, is expected to cost $47bn to shift South Africa off coal, mostly from private investors.³ In 2022 more than a dozen governments and development banks signed JET-P deals with Indonesia and Vietnam worth $36bn, under which coal would supply just 20% of Vietnam's electricity by 2030.³ Private capital is inching in. Amazon, Meta, Netflix, Mastercard and PepsiCo have joined the Kinetic Coalition, a group backing early coal-plant retirement through carbon credits.⁷ The scale stays small against the capacity still being added.⁷ Alinta Energy's new owner captures the bind, pledging faster renewable investment while keeping the Loy Yang A brown coal plant running.⁶ The Hormuz episode showed how quickly governments reach for coal when gas turns expensive.⁵ ICE Brent crude front-month traded near $86.80 a barrel as of 2026-06-13, and another spike of that kind would test whether any of them can hold the line.²