Gold Hit a 45-Year High in 2025 Even as Central Banks Eased Off Buying

Gold Hit a 45-Year High in 2025 Even as Central Banks Eased Off Buying A 44% rally to $4,550 last year was driven by ETF flows and geopolitical fear as much as official purchases — and energy-led inflation now caps the upside. Gold prices rallied 44 percent over 2025, reaching $4,550 per ounce in December and setting 56 fresh record highs, the steepest annual run in 45 years, oilprice.com reported on 2026-06-04. What stands out is that official-sector demand did not lead the move: central banks bought less gold last year than the year before, yet the price climbed anyway.⁵ That is relevant to energy desks because gold and crude trade off the same two macro forces — geopolitical risk and the inflation path that sets central-bank rates. When both rally together, it usually signals a market pricing in supply shocks and currency debasement. When they diverge, as they have lately, the cause is almost always real rates.^5,4 The current screen shows that divergence. Gold was trading at $4,144.89 on 2026-06-10, down 0.54 percent on the day and roughly 9 percent below its December peak.⁵ ICE Brent crude front-month sat at $92.42, off 0.28 percent, with WTI at $89.32.⁵ Energy is holding firm while gold drifts back from its highs. The link runs through rates. Analysts cited by invezz.com noted that surging energy prices tend to intensify inflationary pressures and could prompt central banks to keep interest rates elevated for longer, eroding demand for a metal that pays no coupon.⁴ Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion. With Brent above $90 and Henry Hub front-month at $3.22, the inflation impulse that supports nominal gold also keeps policy tight enough to cap it. If official buying slowed, the rally needed another buyer. Exchange-traded funds supplied it. The Economist reported gold ETF holdings rose 25 percent over the year to around 4,200 tonnes, a flow that tracked the price up by some 60 percent between the previous summer and late February.² That makes the move more financial than structural, and more fragile. ETF positions reverse faster than central-bank reserves. The fragility showed. The Economist noted gold plunged about 15 percent after late February, more than global equities, as one geopolitical premium unwound.² Turkey sold $8bn-worth of gold in the fortnight to March 20th to prop up the lira, a reminder that official holders can be forced sellers when their currencies come under pressure.² Safe-haven demand cuts both ways. China sits at the center of the official-sector story, and its commodity behavior tells a consistent tale. Chinese gold buying eased, but its appetite for physical energy reserves did not. China has amassed an estimated 1.2 to 1.3 billion barrels of crude, potentially the largest national oil inventory, oilprice.com reported.¹ Crude purchases rose 4.4 percent to 578 million tonnes in 2025, reversing the prior year's decline.³ But the buying is not uniform across the commodity complex, which complicates any simple inflation read. China bought 490 million tonnes of coal in 2025, down 9.6 percent and the first decline since 2022, on cheaper alternatives and a rare contraction in thermal power generation, according to mining.com.³ Gas imports slipped 2.8 percent to 128 million tonnes, the first drop in three years, as record domestic output and weak industrial demand bit.³ A country stockpiling oil while cutting coal and gas imports is hedging supply risk, not betting on runaway demand. The contrast matters for the gold thesis. If the world's largest commodity importer is signaling softer energy demand through its coal and gas books, the inflation case that underpins both crude and bullion weakens at the margin.³ China National Petroleum Corp expects consumption growth to double to 5 percent this year, but a wave of new global export projects is likely to damp prices.³ For traders, the question is whether gold's pullback to $4,144 marks a pause in a structural repricing or the start of a deeper unwind of crowded ETF positions.^5,2 Watch real rates and the energy-inflation path: as long as Brent holds above $90 and keeps policy tight, bullion lacks a clean catalyst to retest December's high.^4,5 The central banks that drove the prior leg are buying less, and the funds that replaced them can leave faster than they arrived.^5,2