Russia Lifts 2025 Oil Export Target Even As Drone Strikes Cripple Refineries

Russia Lifts 2025 Oil Export Target Even As Drone Strikes Cripple Refineries Moscow's economy ministry raised this year's crude export forecast to 240m tons, betting volumes can rise while almost half its refineries sit damaged by Ukrainian drones. Russia's economy ministry has raised its 2025 oil export forecast to 240.1 million tons, up from a previous 229.7 million tons, even as Ukrainian drone strikes leave almost half the country's refineries damaged.^3,7 The ministry simultaneously cut its gas export outlook, projecting pipeline gas flows outside the former Soviet Union will fall 10.7% from 2024 to 72 billion cubic metres this year.³ That split matters because it tells you where Moscow thinks its leverage still lies. Pipeline gas to Europe is gone and not coming back. Russian gas now accounts for 18% of European imports, down from 45% in 2021, while Russian crude has fallen to 3% of the bloc's oil purchases from roughly 30% over the same span.³ With Europe lost as a gas customer, the Kremlin is leaning harder on crude volumes routed east.³ The problem is that the export push is colliding with a refining crisis at home. The Economist reported that almost half of Russia's refineries have been hit by drones and missiles, and that the tempo of Ukrainian attacks is accelerating.⁷ Damaged refining capacity means less crude processed domestically, which in theory frees up more barrels for export. It also means fuel shortages inside Russia, the kind that force a country to choose between supplying its own pumps and earning hard currency abroad.⁷ Ukraine is not letting up. Naftogaz told Montel that Russian forces inflicted "extensive damage" on its oil and gas facilities over three days through Tuesday (2026-05-19), and that an overnight drone and missile barrage hit gas production sites in the Poltava and Kharkiv regions.^2,1 On Wednesday (2026-05-20), Ukrainian military intelligence reported a fresh Russian air strike on the country's critical infrastructure.⁴ The energy war runs in both directions, and both sides are targeting the other's ability to produce and move fuel. Crude prices were already tense when the export forecast landed. Brent broke above $111 a barrel in Asian trade on Monday (2026-05-18), with ICE Brent front-month at $111.50, up 2.03%, and WTI front-month at $108.20, up 2.59%, oilprice.com reported, as drone attacks on the UAE and Saudi Arabia dimmed hopes of regional de-escalation.⁵ Those levels have since unwound. ICE Brent crude front-month traded at $93.21 on Tuesday (2026-06-09), with WTI at $89.72, leaving the May spike looking like a fear premium that has bled out.⁵ The supply math behind that spike has not gone away. The International Energy Agency estimated a 6 million barrel-per-day gap between supply and demand from March to June.⁵ JPMorgan warned that OECD inventories could approach "operational stress levels" by early June, raising the risk of sharper price spikes and physical shortages.⁵ Russia raising its export target into that math is either a genuine supply offset or a paper forecast that damaged infrastructure cannot deliver.^3,7 The money tells a more cautious story than the volumes. The ministry raised its 2025 oil and gas export earnings estimate to $206.1 billion from $200.3 billion, but cut the 2026 figure to $215.2 billion from $220.4 billion.³ More barrels now, less revenue expected next year. LNG exports are seen edging up just 3% this year to 35.7 million metric tons, still below earlier projections.³ Behind the numbers sits a weakened state gas champion. Gazprom posted a loss of almost $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, after the rupture with the European Union severed its main export revenue stream.³ The pivot to crude is partly a function of having no gas pivot left to make. China is the obvious destination for the redirected oil, but the relationship is tilting against Moscow. Bilateral trade softened last year on lower oil prices, and the "no-limits" partnership Putin and Xi proclaimed before the war looks increasingly one-sided, dw.com reported.⁶ A single dominant buyer with leverage is not the same as a healthy export market. The 240-million-ton target now faces a test its damaged refineries may not let it pass.^3,7 If Ukrainian strikes keep knocking out refining capacity, Russia may export more crude by default, simply because it cannot process it.⁷ If the strikes hit export terminals and pumping stations instead, the forecast collapses. The June inventory squeeze JPMorgan flagged is the near-term pressure point.⁵ The gap between what Moscow projects and what its battered infrastructure can ship is the trade.³