Asia's Geothermal Boom Slows as Investors Stay on the Sidelines

Asia's Geothermal Boom Slows as Investors Stay on the Sidelines A Pinsent Masons report finds 21% of nearly 1,000 investors eyeing geothermal, but none have committed, leaving Asia's fastest-growing clean baseload short of capital. Geothermal capacity across Asia climbed 113% in the 25 years to 2020, outpacing the 83% global rate over the same stretch, according to a Pinsent Masons report carried by Asian Power on Friday (2026-06-05). The same report says the boom is now slowing, and lays the cause at regulatory risk.⁵ That matters because Asia is short of precisely what geothermal supplies: firm, zero-carbon baseload at a moment when regional power demand is rising faster than anywhere else. Japan's data centres alone will draw as much electricity as 15 million to 18 million households by 2034, driving 60% of the country's power demand growth, Wood Mackenzie estimates.^5,4 The appetite, on paper, looks real. Pinsent Masons surveyed almost 1,000 active venture capital investors and technology developers, and found 21% intend to put money into geothermal within the next 12 months. None of them currently holds a position in the sector. Only 5% of the region's green-energy developers have made any inroads at all.⁵ So the gap is between stated intent and a single deployed dollar. The firm's message to that 21% is plain: plan for regulatory risk if they want to unlock the full potential of Asia Pacific's geothermal projects. Geothermal carries heavy upfront drilling cost, which makes it unusually exposed to any rule that shifts after the capital is committed.⁵ The pull toward new baseload is visible elsewhere in the region's choices. Japan and South Korea sharply raised coal-fired generation in April and early May as the war involving Iran disrupted around 17% of LNG export capacity in Qatar, the world's second-largest supplier, and pushed Asian LNG prices higher, Kyodo reported.³ Vietnam offers a sharper illustration. A heatwave pushed the country's coal-fired generation up 12.3% in April to a record 17,864 gigawatt-hours, government figures show. ICIS senior gas analyst Fei Xu estimated that Japan's extra coal burn displaced roughly four LNG cargoes in April, about half the annual import cut the government had expected from green measures.³ Every tonne of that coal, and every cargo not bought, is in effect the gap a steady geothermal pipeline might have filled. The resource is in the ground. The capital is hesitating. China has meanwhile overtaken Japan as the world's largest LNG market, a reminder of how quickly Asian demand can outrun the supply choices made for it.^5,1 The contrast with solar is instructive. China controls more than 70% of the global supply chain for the cells and modules that make up solar panels, and Gavekal Dragonomics analyst Dan Wang argues that lead is now likely irreversible.² Geothermal has no equivalent champion. There is no single market hauling costs down a learning curve, no dominant manufacturer turning a niche into a default. That absence is part of why the survey money has stayed parked, and why a 113% run that looked like momentum is reading more like a plateau.^5,2 The signal to watch is whether any of that 21% turns intention into a first cheque, and which jurisdiction tempts it. Until a regulator in the region offers the tariff certainty that once drew capital into solar and wind, Asia's geothermal figures will keep describing a boom that has already passed its fastest years.⁵