Three supertankers clear Hormuz after two-month halt, easing summer gas fears

Three supertankers clear Hormuz after two-month halt, easing summer gas fears A 6m-barrel exit from the Gulf is the first sign the chokepoint may reopen, the scenario behind LSEG's EUR 45-65/MWh summer gas call. Three commercial supertankers carrying a combined 6 million barrels of Middle East crude exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday (2026-05-20), Reuters reported, after sitting stranded inside the Persian Gulf for more than two months.⁴ That matters because the strait has been effectively shut since late February, and its reopening is the single assumption behind the bearish-gas forecasts now circulating in European trading rooms. The route handles roughly 20% of global LNG flows, and the halt has kept Qatari cargoes out of the Atlantic basin since the US-Israeli war with Iran began on 28 February.^2,4 LSEG analysts told Montel late on Thursday (2026-05-21) that day-ahead European TTF gas should trade in a EUR 45-65/MWh range this summer, provided the strait reopens next month.¹ A separate Montel poll of analyst projections on Friday (2026-05-15) put the 2026 average for Europe's benchmark gas near EUR 45/MWh on the same condition, with Qatari output resuming over the summer.² ICE Endex TTF front-month sat near EUR 48 as of 2026-06-07, already inside that band.¹ So the tanker exit is the concrete signal those forecasts have been waiting on. But three ships is not a reopening. The vessels lent hope to traders watching for a thaw, not proof the route is clear.⁴ The past two months argue for caution. European gas rose 2.2% on Thursday (2026-04-09) as doubts resurfaced over the practicalities of reopening, even after a US-Iran ceasefire.⁷ Norwegian marine insurer Skuld told Montel on Friday (2026-04-10) that it had not changed its policy for ships in the Persian Gulf following the 7 April ceasefire, citing great uncertainty over when shipping might resume.⁶ Insurers move before cargoes do, and they had not moved. Oil tells the same wary story. Brent North Sea crude pushed back over $100 a barrel by mid-May as a tense stalemate set in, with little movement toward talks to resolve the blockade.⁵ Yet ICE Brent crude front-month was back near $93 as of 2026-06-07, suggesting the war premium bled out as the first ships moved.⁵ The physical stakes are why traders watch this chokepoint so closely. The Strait of Hormuz carried an average 21 million barrels a day of oil flows in 2022, the EIA notes, equal to about 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption.³ Bypass options are thin. The EIA estimates roughly 3.5 million b/d of effective unused pipeline capacity could route around the strait, with Saudi Aramco's East-West line and the UAE's 1.5 million b/d Fujairah link doing most of the work.³ The consensus has tilted bearish on gas, weighted toward the reopening thesis: Qatari supply returns and the summer band holds.^1,2 The signals cut the other way too. JKM and ICE Brent crude front-month both carry bullish supply-and-demand readings against that consensus, a reminder that if the strait stays contested, Asian LNG and crude reprice upward fast.⁵ JKM sat near $19/mmBtu as of 2026-06-07, a level that reflects scarcity rather than the glut a clean reopening would bring.⁵ Three tankers clearing the strait is a data point. The confirmation is a sustained outflow of Qatari LNG and a shift in insurer policy, the move that would turn the EUR 45-65/MWh forecast from a condition into a base case.¹ Until Skuld and its peers rewrite their Gulf cover, the reopening stays a hope traders are paying for. Watch the insurance desks and the next run of Qatari cargo nominations.⁶