Wood Mackenzie Puts the Hormuz LNG Hole at 80 Mtpa, a Fifth of Global Supply

Wood Mackenzie Puts the Hormuz LNG Hole at 80 Mtpa, a Fifth of Global Supply A new scenario study quantifies the volume knocked out by the Strait of Hormuz closure, leaving import-dependent Asia and Europe hunting for cargoes they cannot quickly replace. Wood Mackenzie estimates the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stripped more than 80 million tonnes a year of LNG from world markets, equal to about 20% of global supply, according to a report carried on Friday (2026-06-05).⁷ That figure matters because it reframes the disruption as a lasting hole in global supply rather than a passing scare. Asia, the world's biggest LNG-importing region, faces the most direct exposure to the lost volumes and the price swings that follow, the consultancy said. Europe sits close behind: LNG meets about a quarter of the continent's total gas demand, by the reckoning of Stifel analyst Chris Wheaton.^7,6 The price reaction was violent. Front-month TTF futures, Europe's gas benchmark, jumped 35% on Tuesday (2026-05-19) to more than €60 per megawatt-hour, leaving the contract roughly 76% higher over that week.⁶ The pain does not stop at the gas curve. A prolonged surge risks denting European growth and hitting some Asian economies hard, analysts warned as global prices soared in the week of 2026-05-18.⁶ The supply loss traces back to Qatar, which routes nearly all its LNG through Hormuz. QatarEnergy chief executive Saad al-Kaabi said the Iran attack knocked out 17% of the country's LNG export capacity.³ For Italy the squeeze is physical. The last three Qatari cargoes dispatched to Europe before shipping through the strait halted were due to berth on Friday (2026-05-15), Kpler vessel-tracking data showed. The Al Utouriya, which left Ras Laffan on 17 February, was bound for the Rovigo terminal in the northern Adriatic; the Al Kharsaah and Al Ghuwairiya, which sailed on 21 and 16 February, were headed for South Hook and Milford Haven in the UK.¹ Crude told the same story of stress and relief. Front-month Brent crude futures briefly pushed above $119 a barrel before ending at $108.65, up 1.18%, on Thursday (2026-05-14), after Israel said it was helping to reopen the passageway. West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.19% to $96.14.³ Whether that relief is justified is the open question. An Italian bank warned on Tuesday (2026-05-19) that energy and financial markets were significantly underpricing how long it would take to restart damaged Persian Gulf infrastructure, even under its most optimistic assumptions.² Wood Mackenzie modelled three scenarios for the global market after the loss, and each pointed to sustained volatility for import-reliant buyers.⁷ There is an offset, but not a fast one. More than 150 Mtpa of LNG capacity is under construction outside the Persian Gulf, mostly in the United States, with a further 30 Mtpa expected to reach a final investment decision. That pipeline of new supply argues for lower prices eventually; it does nothing for a buyer short a cargo this quarter.⁷ The disruption is also bending longer-term plans. Analysts told RFE/RL that the war in Iran and the energy shock it triggered could revive China's interest in the long-stalled Power of Siberia-2 pipeline to import Russian gas, potentially pulling Beijing's strategy away from seaborne LNG.^4,5 For now the watch list is short and physical. Whether those three Qatari cargoes complete their berthing at Rovigo, South Hook and Milford Haven will show how thoroughly the Hormuz route has frozen.¹ Beyond that, traders are waiting for any credible timeline on reopening the strait, the variable the Italian bank says the market has wrong, and the one that decides whether €60 TTF is a ceiling or a floor.^2,6