Ember Calls Europe's 62% Import Dependency "Desperate" as Spain Reaches 78%
Think tank Ember flagged Europe's energy import reliance as structurally dangerous on Monday, with Spain's exposure nearing four-fifths of primary supply.
Europe imports 62% of its primary energy, and Spain imports 78% — figures an analyst at think tank Ember described as a "desperate level of import dependency" on Monday (2026-09-21). The assessment, reported by Montel, carried a blunt summary: "Europe is in trouble."7
The numbers arrive in a market already unnerved by geopolitical disruption. The conflict in the Middle East has again exposed how little buffer European energy systems carry when supply routes come under pressure. Moeve CEO Maarten Wetselaar told the European Public Affairs conference on Friday (2026-05-15) that Europe's supply resilience was "in a really bad place," a judgment the Ember data now quantifies.2
Spain's position is the sharper edge of the problem. While the country has drawn repeated praise for its renewables buildout — Teresa Ribera, European Commission executive vice-president, singled it out as "a reference in the development of clean energies" during a June speech in Madrid — high import dependency and high renewable penetration are not contradictory. Spain generates substantial electricity from wind and solar while still importing the vast majority of its primary energy in oil, gas and other fuels.4,7
The power price data makes the renewables story clearer. Ember calculates that fossil fuel plants set the price in 89% of European power market hours so far in 2026, but in Spain that figure drops to just 15%. The result is a visible price gap: Italy's average power price ran at €142 per MWh through March, while Spain's averaged €59. Spain's grid is genuinely different. But its primary energy balance sheet remains heavily external.3
ICE Endex TTF front-month held flat at €72.30/MWh on Thursday (2026-09-24). The price reflects a market already absorbing Middle East tensions, but the Ember framing points to a structural question distinct from any single conflict: whether European import dependency is durable enough to sustain elevated gas prices on its own terms.7
Four years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered the last major European energy crisis, the underlying architecture has not changed as much as policymakers had hoped. Storage mandates, demand-reduction targets and LNG import terminal expansions bought time. They did not resolve the structural import position. The latest Middle East conflict is pressing on the same vulnerabilities.1
The EU's renewable buildout has added complexity rather than simplifying the exposure. Replacing Russian pipeline gas with LNG and renewable capacity has also increased European dependence on Chinese-manufactured components — solar panels, batteries, wind turbine parts — creating a different import dependency alongside the energy one.5
Negative power prices are beginning to complicate the investment case. When solar and wind generation surges, European wholesale electricity prices periodically turn negative, discouraging new renewable investment precisely when the buildout needs to accelerate. Grid storage capacity to absorb surplus generation remains inadequate. One study estimates that demand flexibility and storage could save roughly 500GW of backup capacity, but deployment is not keeping pace with renewable additions.6,3
The cost structure is shifting regardless. Christoph Maurer of Consentec told the Economist that the energy system is moving "from variable fuel costs to largely fixed costs," with network charges already accounting for around 20% of household bills. That shift benefits consumers when gas prices spike, but infrastructure investment must be financed upfront, requiring stable regulatory frameworks that European markets have struggled to provide consistently.3
ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $105.16 per barrel on Thursday (2026-09-24), up 0.28%, with WTI at $93.77, up 0.42%. The crude complex is absorbing Middle East tension without disorderly moves. But sustained elevated oil prices feed directly into the import bill for countries like Spain, where 78% of primary energy arrives from abroad.7
Spain's combination — high renewable electricity generation alongside persistently high overall import dependency — may force policymakers to reframe how they measure energy transition progress. Ember's language on Monday (2026-09-21) suggests the think tank believes electricity generation metrics have obscured primary energy vulnerability. Whether European energy ministers adopt that framing will shape how aggressively the next phase of investment policy is designed.7,1