Saudi East-West Pipeline Restarts at Below 10% Capacity With Full Repairs Weeks Away
Saudi Arabia's main Hormuz bypass is moving a fraction of its pre-attack volumes, and Red Sea buffer stocks have fallen below four days of cover.
Saudi Arabia partially restored its East-West oil pipeline on Wednesday (2026-09-16) after drone attacks the previous week, but the system is running at below 10% of its 7 million barrel-per-day rated capacity, according to OilPrice.com. ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $103.25 per barrel as of 2026-09-23, down from the near-$108 reached when the pipeline was first shut following the Thursday (2026-09-10) strikes, but above the sub-$102 recorded after the partial restoration announcement.4,3,5
Before the attack, the pipeline was carrying between 4 million and 5 million barrels per day, equivalent to roughly 4% to 5% of global oil supply, OilPrice.com reported. Saudi Arabia had ramped the system that hard over the previous six months as the West Asia conflict restricted Hormuz transits, effectively turning the East-West route from a backup into a primary export channel. At below 10% of capacity, that role has been suspended.5
Multiple pumping stations were hit in the Thursday (2026-09-10) strikes. OilPrice.com reported on Thursday (2026-09-17) that the damage is more extensive than initially assessed, with three stations confirmed struck. Vantor satellite imagery from Wednesday (2026-09-16) appeared to show emergency bypass work underway. Three sources told Reuters that full repairs could take five to six weeks, though partial throughput could resume before then.5,2
ICE Brent front-month surged toward $108 per barrel following the initial shutdown, per CryptoBriefing. Saudi Arabia's partial restoration and spot-market sales knocked 2.7% off the price, pushing it below $102, Newsbytes reported. Oil has risen more than 70% year-to-date, reflecting sustained pressure from the U.S.-Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.4,3
Inventory cover at Saudi Arabia's Red Sea terminals is thinning fast. Kpler data show stocks fell by nearly 6 million barrels between July and mid-September, dropping from around 21 million barrels to below 15 million. OilPrice.com reported that at an export rate of 3.5 million barrels per day, the remaining buffer represents little more than four days of cover. The drawdown had already begun before the pipeline strikes.5
Riyadh turned to the spot market to maintain near-term deliveries. Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia sold as many as 20 million barrels of crude during the week of 2026-09-14, with buyers expected to receive barrels through ship-to-ship transfers outside the strait. The approach covers immediate commitments but is logistically expensive and does not restore physical pipeline flows.5
Saudi Arabia has shown it can move fast when the system is intact. When Hormuz disruptions began, Aramco ramped the pipeline's capacity to 7 million barrels per day within eight days, keeping roughly 60% of pre-war exports flowing, according to Zawya. That pace has not been matched after this attack, consistent with reporting that the current infrastructure damage runs deeper.1
The UAE's Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline can carry up to 1.8 million barrels per day and has taken on a larger role in regional crude flows since the conflict began, Zawya reported. That capacity does not come close to replacing the 4 million to 5 million barrels per day Saudi Arabia had been routing through its own system. ADNOC is targeting 5 million barrels per day of capacity by next year, a goal brought forward by three years, but that timeline offers no near-term relief.1
Three Reuters sources put repairs at five to six weeks. Red Sea buffer stocks are below four days of cover. Any further disruption to Saudi Arabia's alternative export logistics before the pipeline comes back would test that margin almost immediately.5