Aramco Cancels European Cargoes as Saudi East-West Pipeline Extends Shutdown
Chris Wright's September 15 "within days" restart forecast has lapsed, with Aramco canceling European cargoes and late-September Saudi loadings potentially lost.
Seven days have passed since U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Tuesday (2026-09-15) that Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline could return to service "within days." The line remains shut. Saudi Aramco has canceled or delayed crude deliveries to at least three European refiners, according to Argus and Reuters reporting, eliminating what had been one of the kingdom's main bypass routes around the Strait of Hormuz.4,3
The pipeline was carrying 4 million to 5 million barrels per day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu before it went offline, providing roughly 4 percent to 5 percent of global supply through a route around Hormuz, traffic through which has remained severely constrained since the Iran war began. Wright's statement was described as the first relatively concrete timeline offered by any senior official for restoring the route. It has not been met, and no updated timeline has appeared in the week since.4
Saudi production was already at historic lows before the pipeline closure deepened the shortfall. The IEA put Saudi crude supply at 6 million barrels per day in August 2026, down 2.3 million bpd on the month and the lowest in more than three decades. Losing the East-West route eliminates significant throughput on top of an already diminished export base.4
The commercial damage is now concentrated in European refinery programs. One market source told Argus that every Saudi cargo scheduled for the final ten days of September could be at risk — not a handful of individual cargoes but the full tail of September program liftings. Aramco's ability to deliver against term contracts has been directly constrained by limited Red Sea loading options.3
European refiners have moved quickly into the spot market. Poland's Orlen purchased North Sea grades including Grane, Johan Sverdrup and Johan Castberg through spot tenders and sought offers for U.S. WTI Midland crude and Kazakhstan's CPC Blend, traders told Reuters. The pivot to Atlantic Basin and Central Asian grades reflects both the breadth of the supply gap and the speed at which refiners are having to rebuild their programs.3
ICE Brent crude front-month was at $101.44 per barrel on Tuesday (2026-09-22), off about 0.68 percent on the session. WTI front-month was at $93.73 per barrel. The relative containment of spot prices suggests the market is either treating Saudi supply disruption as already embedded in the forward curve since the Hormuz disruption began, or discounting the late-September cancellation risk as temporary pending a restart.
Saudi Arabia had previously demonstrated the East-West line's capacity to absorb a crisis. Aramco ramped it to 7 million barrels per day within eight days after Hormuz traffic was first severely disrupted, keeping around 60 percent of the kingdom's pre-war exports flowing, according to reporting on Saudi energy officials' statements. The engineering capability to restore throughput quickly is established. What is absent is any public explanation for why the line has remained shut past Wright's forecast window.1
The UAE's Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline — the Habshan-Fujairah line — carries up to 1.8 million bpd to the Gulf of Oman coast and has continued operating throughout the disruption. ADNOC is targeting 5 million bpd of total export capacity by next year, a goal brought forward by three years, with a new Hormuz bypass roughly 50 percent complete as of Wednesday (2026-05-20). That additional infrastructure remains months away from commissioning.1,2
With nine days remaining in September and the full late-month Saudi cargo program in doubt, October term negotiations between Aramco and European refiners will open against a materially altered supply backdrop if the East-West pipeline stays offline through month-end. Refiners holding Saudi term contracts are already covering through spot. The question now is whether the restart, when it comes, arrives in time to prevent those spot purchases from becoming the new baseline.3,4