LNG Flows Stuck at 8% of Pre-Crisis Levels as Houthis Prepare Second Chokepoint Closure
Crude escorts through Hormuz have partly worked, but LNG remains stranded and a Bab el-Mandeb shutdown could tighten diesel and jet fuel routes again within days.
LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to only about 8% of pre-crisis levels even as crude tanker traffic has partially resumed under US Navy escorts, discoveryalert.com reported on Monday (2026-09-21). ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $101.58 per barrel early Tuesday (2026-09-22), while Asian LNG benchmark JKM held at $25.99 per MMBtu — both reflecting months of constrained supply.6
The divergence exposes a specific gap in what military force can achieve in energy transit corridors. Before hostilities, around 20 million barrels per day of crude and products moved through Hormuz alongside 10.5 billion cubic feet per day of LNG, together representing roughly 20% of global petroleum consumption, discoveryalert.com reported. Up to 5.5 million barrels per day of that volume consisted of fully refined petroleum products — diesel, jet fuel, and naphtha already cracked at Middle Eastern mega-refineries — meaning the product supply chain damage extends well beyond what crude flow data alone captures.6,7
Project Freedom, the US Navy escort programme, has shepherded more than 2,000 commercial vessels through the strait. Crude tanker traffic has responded. LNG has not. Specialised carriers, liquefaction terminals, and regasification infrastructure cannot be protected by naval escort in the same way as crude tankers, leaving LNG flows stranded at a fraction of pre-crisis volumes.6
Analysts estimate total supply loss from the 2026 Hormuz crisis at 11 to 14 million barrels per day, more than double the 4 to 5 million barrels per day removed during the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, discoveryalert.com reported. That earlier disruption, representing roughly 9 to 10% of global output at the time, triggered prolonged stagflation debate. The 2026 event operates on a different scale.6
The IEA responded in March 2026 with a record coordinated release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, including a 172-million-barrel draw from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, discoveryalert.com reported. Reserve releases bought time. They are not a substitute for resumed transit, and the longer the disruption runs, the thinner the buffer.6
US petroleum exports have partly filled the gap. EIA data show exports reached 13.6 million barrels per day in April, 15% above the previous record set in March 2026, with crude making up 5.6 million barrels per day — 21% above the prior record set in December 2023. Distillate exports reached 1.6 million barrels per day, the highest since July 2017.3
Goldman Sachs forecast, cited by Reuters, that tighter petroleum product supply from the Hormuz crisis would keep refining margins significantly elevated through 2026, with the war having pushed margins two to three times above the 2013-to-2019 average. Diesel margins specifically were seen at $19 to $26 per barrel above pre-March levels, the bank's commodity analysts wrote in a note during the week of June 1, 2026.2
Goldman also flagged that gasoline and diesel stocks would likely fall further in any initial Hormuz reopening stage, as demand recovers faster than supply — a calculation that worsens if a second chokepoint closes before the first fully reopens. Heating oil front-month was flat at $4.88 per gallon and RBOB gasoline held at $3.48 per gallon as of early Tuesday (2026-09-22), suggesting product markets are treating the current supply situation as largely priced in.2
The more pressing near-term threat may be Bab el-Mandeb. A very senior source cited by OilPrice.com on Monday (2026-09-21) said the Houthis were likely within days to formally close the strait to all vessels deemed enemy shipping, moving beyond the selective targeting of Saudi-linked traffic that had characterised earlier restrictions. Kpler data showed only 21 commodity vessels crossed the Bab el-Mandeb on Wednesday (2026-07-29), down from 38 the day before, with only Russian crude using the chokepoint by that point.7,4
Three overland pipeline routes have been ramped up to offset some of the Hormuz disruption. Saudi Aramco's East-West pipeline, expanded to 7 million barrels per day in 2019, along with UAE and Iraqi alternatives, now carry additional crude volumes, Al Jazeera reported. But those routes carry crude, not LNG, and their combined capacity falls well short of pre-crisis strait throughput.5,1
If Bab el-Mandeb formally closes to broader traffic, diesel and jet fuel routes to Europe and Asia tighten again regardless of whether Hormuz crude escorts continue to function. The vessel count through Bab el-Mandeb in the days immediately following any formal closure announcement will be the clearest early signal of how much product flow is actually at risk.7,4