Saudi Arabia Posts Lowest Oil Output Since 1990 as ICE Brent Settles at $103.37 After September 10 Peak
ICE Brent crude front-month closed at $103.37 on September 18 after Saudi Arabia's August output hit a 36-year low, compounding Hormuz supply fears.
ICE Brent crude front-month settled at $103.37 per barrel at the September 18 close, pulling back roughly $4 from the $107 spike reached on September 10 when Saudi Arabia disclosed that its oil output had fallen to 7.28 million barrels per day in August — the lowest OPEC-registered production figure for the kingdom since 1990.6,7
Saudi Arabia's output dropped 75,000 bpd in August even as OPEC and its allies collectively added 297,000 bpd, pushing the group's total to 38.06 million bpd for the month. The kingdom trimmed while the alliance expanded. Traders read that divergence as a sign Riyadh had less spare capacity than official messaging had implied, and prices responded.7
The move began building earlier that week. On September 7, Iran-backed Houthi forces struck Saudi energy facilities while Tehran simultaneously threatened the United States with what it called "economic warfare." ICE Brent crude front-month rose $2.00, or 2.06%, to $99.00 that session. NYMEX WTI front-month climbed to $94.41, up $2.93, or 3.2%.2
Two sessions later, on September 9, ICE Brent front-month added $2.15, or 2.2%, reaching $100.07 by early morning in London — the first time above $100 in nearly three months, according to Reuters. NYMEX WTI front-month moved to $94.73, up $1.70, or 1.83%. By later that morning, ICE Brent had extended to $102.05 per barrel.3,4,5
The Strait of Hormuz is where the physical disruption is playing out. Since the US-Iran confrontation escalated in late August, transit volumes through the strait fell to roughly 2 million barrels per day, down from 8 to 9 million bpd in the week before fighting resumed on August 30, according to Rystad Energy chief economist Claudio Galimberti. That collapse is roughly 75% of pre-escalation flow.5,3
ICE Brent has climbed approximately 25% since early August and more than 60% year-to-date as of September 10. But the September 18 close at $103.37 sits about $4 below the spike high, and options markets placed only a 3.1% probability on crude reaching a new all-time high by September 30 — a slight increase from earlier in the month, yet far short of majority positioning.5,6
Analysts are cautious about how much of the move reflects genuine supply loss versus sentiment. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said the market was being carried by perceived supply risk rather than confirmed deficit. Waleed Said, technical analyst at GivTrade, told Rigzone on July 22 that prices were rising "mainly because the market is adding a geopolitical supply-risk premium," citing repeated US-Iran attacks as the driver. Both descriptions point to pricing that can reverse quickly if the Hormuz corridor shows any signs of reopening.2,1
The equity and bond markets absorbed the oil move poorly. The S&P 500 recorded its longest losing streak since June as ICE Brent crossed $107, while Treasury yields moved higher as inflation expectations repriced the energy shock, cryptobriefing.com reported. That tension — crude pricing in sustained disruption while equities price in demand destruction — is the contradiction traders are sitting with into the weekend.6
ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes does not expect full Hormuz throughput to recover until late first quarter or early second quarter 2027, a potential five to six months of constrained waterborne supply. Saudi Arabia's September production figures, due in coming weeks, are the next discrete test. A second consecutive monthly decline would sharpen the supply-deficit argument; a recovery toward prior levels would test how much of the $103 price is structural and how much simply reflects the shock.2