Standard Chartered Sees Sustained Oil Floor as Hormuz Flows Collapse to Below 2 Million Barrels a Day
Standard Chartered predicts the US-Iran stalemate will keep crude prices above a higher floor as Strait of Hormuz throughput has fallen to below 2 million barrels a day.
ICE Brent crude front-month was at $104.01 a barrel on Thursday (2026-09-17), holding above $100 despite a 0.61% session decline, as military exchanges between Washington and Tehran continue to constrain physical flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have predicted the continuing stalemate and mounting physical risks to regional exports will keep oil prices supported above a higher floor.7
The flow data gives that forecast its grounding. Daily crude exports through the region had recovered to between 6 million and 9 million barrels during August. The latest fighting has cut that to below 2 million barrels a day, according to oilprice.com, stripping out nearly all of August's throughput recovery.7
Prices were not always at these levels. At the end of June (2026-06-30), ICE Brent futures for August delivery were at $73.31 a barrel, rising 16 cents on the session as investors reacted to reports of possible diplomatic discussions between Washington and Tehran. The more actively traded September Brent contract was at $74.36. Brent was on course for its third straight monthly loss in June, having fallen around 20% that month; across the full second quarter, the contract declined roughly 38%, while WTI fell approximately 29% over the same period.1
The recovery came as diplomatic hopes faded. By Monday (2026-07-13), ICE Brent had reached $78.68, up 3.5%, with the contract having climbed close to 5% earlier in the session after tensions intensified over the preceding weekend. Investors were reassessing the scale of potential supply disruption rather than pricing in a deal.2
Fresh military exchanges on Monday (2026-07-20) pushed ICE Brent close to 4% higher, lifting prices above $91. By Thursday (2026-09-03), the contract surged past $101 as escalating US-Iran fighting raised fresh concerns over Middle East supply disruption.3,7
BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said in a report distributed on Friday (2026-09-04) that its base case still assumes a preliminary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by end-September 2026. Analysts at BMI noted that oil price action remains dominated by developments around the US-Iran conflict. They added that flows which did move through the strait, "particularly alongside weaker Asian crude purchases and sustained inventory drawdowns," had helped contain the crude price rally so far.6
The containment partly rested on one anomalous reading. On Monday (2026-08-31), 17 million barrels of crude passed through the Strait, the highest daily volume since the conflict began disrupting regional flows. But by September 3 (2026-09-03), crude had eased to around $95.50 as the United States warned that vessels attempting the passage could face fines, confiscation, or detention. The high-throughput day proved an outlier.5
Shipping operators have drawn the same conclusion. ANZ analysts said operators are adopting a cautious approach and that inbound movements have slowed under heightening security concerns. For refiners sourcing Gulf crude, that caution deepens supply uncertainty and reinforces the price floor Standard Chartered identifies.2
BMI set end-September 2026 as its base case for a preliminary Hormuz deal. If no agreement emerges before then, oilprice.com has reported the physical market could approach a point at which shortages develop beyond what inventory drawdowns can offset. ICE Brent's reaction in sessions approaching that deadline will give traders a first read on whether the market treats its arrival as a catalyst for resolution or a reason to bid crude further.4,6