Brent at $105 as Persian Gulf Product Exports Stall at 40% of Pre-War Levels
Diesel prices up more than 100% year-to-date as Persian Gulf product exports stay at 40% of pre-war levels; Goldman Sachs projects Brent could reach $120.
ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $105.78 a barrel on Thursday (2026-09-17), clearing $100 after months in which the contract had rarely reached that level despite seven months of Strait of Hormuz disruption. Diesel has outpaced crude by a far wider margin over the same period: distillate prices are up more than 100% year-to-date, according to Goldman Sachs data, outpacing the crude move significantly.7
Goldman Sachs, in analysis published around August 31 (2026-08-31), said Persian Gulf crude exports had recovered to roughly 70% to 80% of pre-war levels while product shipments remained at only 40%. The bank more than doubled its diesel crack spread forecasts, citing strikes on refineries in the Middle East and ongoing disruption from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. A crude export recovery means little if the refineries processing it are damaged or inaccessible.4
Vortexa data show the scale of the product shortfall. Diesel and gasoil exports from the Middle East and Russia combined have collapsed more than 50% — to 1.6 million barrels per day from roughly 3.3 million bpd before the disruption intensified, according to oilprice.com reporting on August 19 (2026-08-19). U.S. middle distillate inventories are running 12% below the five-year seasonal average.3
The U.S. national diesel average reached $5.78 per gallon on September 3 (2026-09-03), up more than 53% from a $3.76 baseline, Yahoo Finance reported. NYMEX heating oil front-month was at $5.22 per gallon on Thursday (2026-09-17). U.S. wholesale diesel futures climbed 26% through July (2026-07) alone, Rigzone reported.5,1
JPMorgan analysts have said that diesel's role in powering freight and heavy equipment means price increases feed into the cost of making and delivering goods. The transmission from product markets to consumer prices is less visible in crude benchmarks but has been accumulating for months.2
But ICE Brent's relative resilience through most of the conflict has an explanation. China cut seaborne crude shipments to 7 million barrels per day in July and August (2026-07 to 2026-08), down from over 11 million bpd in February (2026-02), according to RTE reporting on September 7 (2026-09-07). China's reduced buying absorbed much of what Gulf supply disruptions would otherwise have removed from crude markets. That cushion appears to be thinning as Brent clears $100.8
ING commodities analysts estimated Persian Gulf oil exports at roughly 50% of pre-war volumes as of early September (2026-09-03). In the week to September 5 (2026-09-05), Brent gained more than 6% after the United States and Iran resumed military exchanges in the seventh month of their conflict, Baird Maritime reported. Three senior Iranian sources told Baird Maritime that a U.S. campaign to throttle Iranian oil exports through sanctions enforcement is growing increasingly difficult to withstand.6,5
Goldman has set out two scenarios. If maritime attacks worsen, analysts project Brent could reach $120 a barrel. If regional supply routes stabilise, crude could fall to $80. That $40 range on a single geopolitical variable reflects how much remains unresolved about the depth and duration of the disruption. Goldman analysts also said they favour natural gas and diesel positions over direct crude exposure, a preference that reflects the product-crude divergence underway since the conflict began.7
Refineries offer little buffer. Many plants are running near capacity, having deferred maintenance to capitalise on record crack spreads, oilprice.com noted on August 19 (2026-08-19). Asian refiners outside China were operating at around 80% utilisation in July (2026-07), but prompt delays in crude arrivals from the Gulf were expected to weigh on run rates through August (2026-08), Rigzone reported. With inventories thin and maintenance deferred across multiple regions, an unplanned outage at a major refining centre or an early hurricane would hit a diesel market that has already run out of slack.3,1