China Resumes Oil Buying as Brent Climbs to $105 on Renewed Hormuz Attacks
Reduced Chinese crude purchases capped oil prices for months; Beijing's return to buying shifts the demand picture as Hormuz attacks intensify.
ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $105.49 a barrel on Wednesday (2026-09-16), up nearly 30% from early-August lows, as attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz kept supply disruption in the foreground.6,7
That climb has been slower than many forecasters predicted when the conflict began on February 28 (2026-02-28). ICE Brent peaked around $126 a barrel, comfortably below 2008's all-time high of $147, and averaged just $101 between the start of fighting and June 11 (2026-06-11), TBS News reported. Two forces consistently prevented prices from reflecting the full scale of the disruption.5
China provided the larger one. The world's largest crude oil importer sharply cut purchases after the conflict began, withdrawing a sustained source of demand from global markets at precisely the moment Hormuz supply lanes were under pressure. News18 reported that nearly half of China's imported crude normally transits the strait, giving Beijing reason to draw down domestic inventories rather than pay elevated prices for cargoes with route uncertainty built in.4,2
U.S. output supplied the other offset. American crude production reached a record 13.93 million barrels per day by April (2026-04), while the International Energy Agency coordinated a 400 million-barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve release in March (2026-03), the largest on record, to cushion supply shortfalls. Traders said through much of the spring that prompt physical cargoes remained plentiful, which limited the price impact of escalations that might otherwise have driven Brent sharply higher.5
The market was not still. Al Jazeera reported ICE Brent plunged 17% on Tuesday (2026-05-19) to below $80 a barrel before recovering toward $90 after mixed signals from U.S. officials on ceasefire talks. Oil spiked 5% on Monday (2026-06-08) then fell more than 3% the next day (2026-06-09). Those swings captured a market oscillating between geopolitical shock and the reassurance of physical surplus. Neither signal dominated for long.1,3
A ceasefire was agreed around late June (2026-06), News18 citing a 60-day arrangement, but a deal to halt attacks on vessels was never concluded and fighting resumed in late August (2026-08). ICE Brent crossed back above $100 by September 9 (2026-09-09) following what English NV described as the largest vessel attacks of the conflict to that point.7,4
By Thursday (2026-09-10), ICE Brent had settled at $101.61 a barrel by 08:14 GMT, a gain of 40 cents on the day, while NYMEX WTI front-month added 49 cents to $96.54, Yahoo Finance reported. The modest scale of those moves, after the most severe attacks of the conflict, suggested traders were pricing in elevated but bounded disruption rather than a full closure of the strait.6
The demand side is now shifting. ING analysts said China has increased crude purchases in recent weeks following several months of reduced buying. China re-entering the market removes one of the offsets that kept prices below early-conflict forecasts. The SPR barrels released in March have largely been absorbed, and U.S. production, already running at record levels, has limited room to expand further at short notice.6
Dubai crude was at $116.22 a barrel on Wednesday (2026-09-16), a premium of more than $10 to ICE Brent that reflects the concentrated pricing of Gulf sour grades exposed directly to Hormuz transit risk. Whether China sustains its renewed buying pace or reverts to the cautious procurement posture it held through spring may carry as much weight for Brent's next leg as any single attack on the waterway.