IAEA Raises Central and Eastern Asia Nuclear Ceiling to 407 GW by 2060
The agency's upward revision places the region as the dominant driver of a global capacity near-tripling, but annual investment runs at a third of what the buildout requires.
Central and Eastern Asia could hold 407 gigawatts electric of nuclear generating capacity by 2060, up from 114 GW(e) in 2025, the International Atomic Energy Agency said on Wednesday (2026-09-16), placing the region as the largest single contributor to projected global nuclear growth.7
The revision lifts the global high-case ceiling to 1,284 GW(e) by 2060, roughly 3.4 times the 377.1 GW(e) that 413 operating reactors provided worldwide at the end of 2025. The agency's high-case 2050 estimate also rose to 1,045 GW(e) from 992 GW(e) projected a year earlier, a consistent drift upward in official expectations.7
The numbers are striking on paper. But nuclear's share of global electricity generation actually fell to 8.4% in 2025 despite a 1.1% increase in absolute output to 2,689.1 terawatt-hours, because overall electricity demand grew faster than the fleet could add capacity. That gap sits at the centre of what the IAEA projections implicitly acknowledge.7
The financing arithmetic is uncomfortable. The World Nuclear Association has estimated that reaching governments' stated target of 1,446 GW(e) by 2050 — a figure slightly above the IAEA high case — would require around $6 trillion in investment over 25 years, or roughly $250 billion annually. Current global nuclear investment runs at approximately $75 billion per year, according to the association, meaning the sector would need to sustain a roughly threefold increase in annual capital deployment over a multi-decade horizon.4
Small modular reactors are expected to carry a growing share of that buildout. Under the IAEA's high case, SMRs account for 28% of all new capacity added globally by 2060, up from 24% in the previous edition of the projection. In the low case the SMR share rises to 23% from just 5% previously, suggesting the agency has meaningfully raised its baseline confidence in SMR deployment rather than treating it as an upside scenario. North America is projected to source roughly 60% of new nuclear capacity from SMRs, with South-Eastern Asia and Latin America both running at 40% in both cases.7
The backdrop in Asia gives the long-run forecast some near-term urgency. Damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility has removed approximately 10.2 million tonnes per annum of supply to the region, according to Rystad Energy analysis, triggering force majeure declarations and leaving import-dependent markets short. Asia faces an anticipated LNG supply shortfall of 35 million tonnes this year alone, which has pushed utilities toward higher coal burn.3
That shift is visible in physical markets. Newcastle coal was quoted at $139.00 per tonne on Wednesday (2026-09-16), well above Rystad's base case average of $125 per tonne for 2026. The Asian LNG benchmark JKM held at $27.76 per million British thermal units as of Wednesday (2026-09-16), flat on the session but elevated enough that coal switching economics remain firmly in play for power generators across the region.2,3
The uranium equity market is offering a mixed read on the IAEA's optimism. The URA uranium ETF fell 1.49% to $41.77 on Wednesday (2026-09-16), extending a soft patch that sits in contrast to the bullish long-run capacity narrative. Cameco shares have gained more than 1,000% since 2020, driven in part by uranium's rise from around $30 per pound in 2022, but near-term demand signals have been patchy even as the structural case for fuel consumption growth builds.5
Malaysia illustrates the timing tension the IAEA high case glosses over. Data centres in the country are on course to consume up to 30% of national power supply by 2030, surging from 8.5 terawatt-hours, but nuclear grid relief is not expected to arrive before that peak load materialises. The broader South-East Asian pattern — acute near-term demand, long-dated supply solutions — runs through the entire regional forecast.6
The Iran conflict has added a strategic dimension to the energy security calculus. The Strait of Hormuz closure, which carries approximately 20% of global LNG shipments, has accelerated political support for nuclear development across South-East Asia, experts told The Straits Times, as governments seek to reduce exposure to Middle Eastern supply routes.1
For the IAEA high case to materialise, the investment rate would need to begin accelerating now, not in 2040. SMR technology remains largely pre-commercial at scale. Asia's immediate generation deficit is being filled by Newcastle coal at $139 a tonne, not by reactors scheduled to come online in the 2030s. The next hard test of the regional buildout thesis comes from project-level financing decisions and whether utilities currently burning coal at elevated prices are actually contracting the construction that the 407 GW projection assumes.7,4,2