Shell, ExxonMobil and Eni Back LNG Expansion as Executives Warn Against Underinvestment
Three oil major executives said Monday new LNG supply is necessary to meet long-term demand growth and prevent sustained price increases.
Executives from Shell, ExxonMobil and Eni said on Monday (2026-09-14) that their companies will keep investing in LNG projects, arguing that fresh supply is needed to satisfy growing long-term demand and prevent prices from moving structurally higher. The comments came with JKM Asian LNG prices at $25.06/MMBtu and ICE Endex TTF front-month holding at €82.95/MWh on Tuesday (2026-09-15), levels that still offer producers healthy margins even with NYMEX Henry Hub front-month at $2.89/MMBtu.6
Global LNG trade hit a record 437 million tonnes in 2025, up 6.3% year on year and marking the fastest growth since 2022, according to the International Gas Union's World LNG Report 2026. That pace of demand absorption is precisely what LNG project developers point to when making the case for new capacity.5
Shell, the world's biggest LNG trader, has projected global LNG demand will rise 65% by 2050 from 2025 levels, driven largely by surging gas consumption in South and Southeast Asia. The company acknowledged that growth in 2026 has been stalled by the Strait of Hormuz crisis, but the long-term trajectory remains the basis for its investment rationale.3
If the 65% growth forecast holds, the market would need to absorb hundreds of millions of additional tonnes annually by mid-century. Without sustained project investment by well-capitalised producers, the supply response would lag and prices would clear higher for longer — an outcome the executives were implicitly arguing against by flagging continued investment.3,6
Still, the context around these pledges is not uncomplicated. A looming supply glut has been weighing on the major oil and gas companies' equity valuations, with Chevron and ExxonMobil underperforming the broader S&P 500 significantly. Since the start of last year, American oil and gas names including Chevron and ExxonMobil returned just 14%, against a 48% total return from the S&P 500 index, according to The Economist. Chevron, ExxonMobil and their four large European counterparts — BP, Eni, Shell and TotalEnergies — paid out a record $120 billion to shareholders last year, representing 56% of combined operating cashflow, Rystad data showed.1
Those shareholder returns sit alongside the investment commitments, and the tension between them shapes how the market reads executive statements at industry conferences. Committing to LNG growth while returning capital at record rates requires disciplined project selection and FID timing. Broad affirmations of long-term investment intent, absent specific project timelines or volume targets, carry limited immediate price signal.1,6
The demand side is clearer. A separate industry forecast reported by Montel in July (2026-07-07) described LNG demand as set to remain strong through the mid-2030s, consistent with Shell's longer-dated 2050 projection. South and Southeast Asian import growth is the primary engine, and neither the Hormuz disruption nor broader macroeconomic softness appears to have materially altered that underlying trajectory.4,3
Wood Mackenzie has estimated that underinvestment in wells globally means big oil must add 300 billion barrels to reserves by 2050 to meet demand — more than the proven reserves of Saudi Aramco. That figure underscores why executives are reluctant to publicly walk back investment plans even when near-term returns disappoint.2
For traders watching the LNG complex, the more immediate price driver is the spread between JKM and TTF front-month. Asian spot prices at $25.06/MMBtu on Tuesday (2026-09-15) versus TTF at €82.95/MWh reflect a market where destination flexibility and contract structures continue to absorb supply shocks. Long-term project commitments by Shell, ExxonMobil and Eni matter most for the 2030s supply curve, not for near-term spot clearing.6
The near-term question is how quickly the Hormuz disruption resolves and how durable the stall in 2026 demand growth proves to be. Shell's own 2026 growth assessment was cautious on that front. If demand recovery in South and Southeast Asia accelerates into year-end, the case for new project FIDs strengthens quickly. If it stalls further, the record shareholder payouts and investment pledges become harder to sustain simultaneously.3,6