Taiwan and Saudi Arabia Drive 60Hz Gas Turbine Squeeze as Annual Demand Approaches 56GW
A tripling of Middle East and Taiwan order share is pushing 60Hz turbine supply to its limits, with manufacturing capacity unlikely to catch up before 2030.
Saudi Arabia and Taiwan together claimed around 38% of global 60Hz heavy-duty gas turbine orders over the past five years, up from 13% in the preceding five-year period, according to research published Tuesday (2026-09-15) by an unnamed firm in its report "Gas Turbine Supply Chain Evolving to Meet Demand." Annual 60Hz demand from traditional markets including the US, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Canada, Taiwan, and parts of Japan is now expected to average close to 56GW per year.4
The supply arithmetic is already uncomfortable. Based on a historical near-even split between 50Hz and 60Hz output, effective 60Hz manufacturing capacity runs at no more than around 40GW per year, the research firm said. Global turbine manufacturing capacity sits at 98GW this year across both frequencies, meaning the 60Hz slice faces a shortfall well before any new capacity comes online.4
That gap sits against a backdrop of accelerating orders. Global gas turbine orders hit a record 100GW last year, 30% above original equipment manufacturer capacity at the time. Contract activity in the first half of 2026 suggests full-year orders could approach 130GW if the pace holds, the research firm noted. These are not easily rerouted commitments: turbine manufacturers operate on multi-year backlogs, and the concentration of demand in Taiwan and Saudi Arabia is displacing volume that other 60Hz markets once assumed was available to them.4
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries offers one measure of how tight conditions have become. The company sold 35 large-frame gas turbines totalling 16GW in its 2025 fiscal year, according to the company's financial release, with its newly restructured Energy Systems division seeing order intake meet or exceed targets within three months of the 2026 financial plan launching. Mitsubishi's large-frame backlog reached 35GW as of mid-August (2026-08-13), Utility Dive reported.3
Wood Mackenzie said earlier this year it expected gas turbine prices to rise 195% by 2027, reaching $600 per kilowatt, driven by the supply squeeze. Any developer banking on 2025-era turbine pricing for a 2028 commissioning date is likely working with outdated assumptions.2
Taiwan's urgency is structural. The island's nuclear phaseout, combined with expansion in its semiconductor sector, is expected to require roughly 6GW of additional gas-fired capacity by end-2026, the research report said. Semiconductor fabs demand highly reliable, dispatchable power. That volume is not optional and is unlikely to be deferred.4
Saudi Arabia's timeline is longer but the scale is larger. The kingdom's electrification strategy targets an additional 12GW of gas-fired capacity by 2034, the research firm said. Unlike Taiwan's near-term scramble, Riyadh's programme spans nearly a decade, giving it more flexibility on delivery windows. But the kingdom's purchasing weight, combined with Taiwan's, has already reshaped the global order book, squeezing allocation for other 60Hz markets.4
JP Morgan's second-quarter reading added further context. New gas turbine orders in Q2 2026 stood at 38GW, 29% higher than Q1 2026, the bank said. Whether that pace represents genuine end-market demand or pull-forward buying ahead of further price increases is a question the data alone cannot answer.2
Global manufacturing capacity is projected to reach 126GW by 2030, up from 98GW in 2026, the research report estimated. That expansion — roughly 29% over four years — assumes manufacturers can execute on planned capacity increases without encountering the steel, skilled labour, and component bottlenecks that have plagued other energy equipment markets.4
The IEA's Electricity 2026 report put US electricity demand growth at 2.1% in 2025, with nearly 2% annual growth expected through 2030. Canada, Japan, and South Korea are all forecast to see faster electricity demand growth through 2030 as well, after 15 years of broad stagnation in advanced economies, the agency said. Each of those countries draws from the same 60Hz supply pool now being contested by Riyadh and Taipei.1
The near-term signal for procurement desks is whether manufacturers begin allocating 60Hz capacity on a prioritised basis — effectively rationing turbine slots — and which markets absorb the delays. South Korea, with its large LNG-fired generation fleet and ongoing capacity expansion, and Canada, where data centre and industrial load growth is accelerating, may find themselves queuing behind better-capitalised sovereign buyers.4,1