RBC Sees ICE Brent Crude Front-Month at $120 as Houthi Threat Opens Second Chokepoint Risk
With Hormuz flows less than half their pre-escalation pace and Bab el-Mandeb under Houthi threat, RBC Capital Markets warns crude has further to run.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft, quoted by Reuters on Friday (2026-09-11), warned that ICE Brent crude front-month could surpass $120 a barrel by year-end if Middle East fighting continues. Satellite monitoring has documented a sharp deterioration in regional oil flows, and Croft flagged a second maritime chokepoint explicitly: "Maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb is gravely imperiled by the Houthi advances." NYMEX WTI crude front-month had already rallied roughly 10% in the days preceding her call.6
ICE Brent crude front-month stood at $104.32 a barrel as of September 12, with NYMEX WTI crude front-month at $99.99. NYMEX WTI for October delivery briefly punched through $100 on Thursday (2026-09-10), hitting $100.88 intraday, up $4.83 or 5.03%, according to Xinhua.5
A June ceasefire between Iran and the United States had already collapsed before the current escalation. Average daily outflows through Hormuz ran between 6 and 8 million barrels in early August 2026, with Rystad Energy estimating flows reached 8 to 9 million barrels daily as of late August 2026. U.S.-Iranian forces then resumed direct fighting, and daily flows slumped to below 2 million barrels. Rystad, as quoted by Reuters in the week of September 7, put the four-week moving average at 4 to 5 million barrels daily.4
The IEA's latest monthly oil market report put the cumulative damage in sharper terms: as of July, 8.3 million barrels a day of Middle East production remained shut in, while global oil inventories declined by 69 million barrels during the month, an average daily draw of 2.7 million barrels.4
JPMorgan's disruption math gives those inventory figures a price handle. The bank estimates every additional month of disruption adds roughly $7 to $8 to ICE Brent crude front-month, and models a three-month scenario producing average monthly Brent prices of around $114 a barrel.3
Not everyone reaches that conclusion. Enverus Intelligence Research maintained its Brent forecast at $100 a barrel through the second half of 2026 and into 2027, stating in a document issued on Tuesday (2026-08-04) that it models Hormuz throughput recovering to 95% of the strait's roughly 20 million barrel-per-day prewar baseline by year-end. EIR also cited recovering Chinese crude demand, though it noted China's crude imports fell to approximately 7.2 million barrels per day in June.2
A reported 2.7 million barrel rise in U.S. crude inventories has supplied the lone bearish data point, with EIR noting the build suggested production and imports had exceeded immediate refinery demand during that period. That pressure on prices has so far been overwhelmed by the supply disruption signal.2
The Bab el-Mandeb dimension is what separates the $120 scenario from current consensus. Houthi forces have already demonstrated sustained capacity for maritime disruption in the waterway, which carries crude and products from the Gulf to European and Asian markets via the Red Sea. If both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb operate at severely constrained capacity simultaneously, the supply shortfall deepens materially. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, told Reuters that recent price action reflected a combination of physical supply tightness and geopolitical factors.6,3
Bernstein analysts called for ICE Brent crude front-month above $100 before year-end on Wednesday (2026-07-22), when Brent futures rose to $95.44, up $4.43 or 4.87%, as diplomatic progress with Iran stalled. ICE Brent crude front-month at $104.32 as of September 12 has since cleared that threshold by about $4. The active debate has moved to $114 and $120.1
The Hormuz moving average, last tracked by Rystad at 4 to 5 million barrels daily in the week of September 7, is the nearest concrete signal to watch. Any further slide from that range shifts the JPMorgan three-month scenario from tail risk toward base case.4