Trader Morning Call — Sunday September 13, 2026

Trader Morning Call — Sunday September 13, 2026 Week-Ahead Preview | Based on Friday 12 September Settlement --- WEATHER OUTLOOK - NW Europe opens under a transitional Atlantic ridge through mid-week: Amsterdam 14-day HDD 5.0, London 3.8, Frankfurt 2.5, minimal heating demand; injection-side stall risk for underfilled stores - ECMWF IFS week-1 averages: Amsterdam 15.2°C, Frankfurt 14.8°C, London 16.0°C, Paris 16.9°C (41% probability exceeding +1SD above normal at day-10) - ECMWF 12Z Sunday run revised North Sea wind upward for Sept 21–24: Oslo +5.4 km/h to 18.4 km/h, Amsterdam corridor to 22.3–22.5 km/h, London to 20.0 km/h, ensemble resolving an Atlantic trough in week-2, but week-1 generation is light (Amsterdam 7-day avg 19.0 km/h, Frankfurt 9.6 km/h) - Week-2 step-down: Amsterdam drops to 13.3°C mean from 15.2°C in week-1, first meaningful HDD accumulation of autumn on the horizon - Critical storage context: Germany 55.3% full, Netherlands 51.4%, both running below injection trajectory for this calendar date; a warm, low-wind week-1 compounds the shortfall heading into Q4 --- KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK - Sunday 13 Sep, OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: First supply/demand update post-Saudi pipeline attack; watch for Middle East output revisions and any compensating volume guidance from non-Gulf producers - Monday 14 Sep, IEA Oil Market Report: IEA cut its 2026 global supply outlook a further 1.4 million bpd on Friday (projected full-year decline now 5.7 million bpd; Gulf recovery pushed to Q2 2027); Monday report may carry further downward revisions - Monday 14 Sep, EU ETS Auction (EEX) and UK ETS Auction (ICE): First carbon auctions of the week; EU Parliament ETS reform vote battle (rapporteur Liese's draft under internal pressure) makes clearing level a positioning signal; CBAM aluminium threshold vote also due this week - Monday 14 Sep, AEMO NEM Weekly Report (Australia) --- WHAT TO WATCH MONDAY - Saudi East-West pipeline restoration: Drone-struck Thursday; carries ~3–4 million bpd of Saudi export capacity bypassing Hormuz; any status update is the primary crude open driver - Hormuz shipping data: Kpler tracking only 7 vessels in 24h Friday vs a 10-day average of 15; VLCC supertanker rates at $800,000/day; Monday update the clearest near-term read on Gulf supply flow - ICE Brent front-month open level: Settled Friday at $104.32 (+8.35% WoW); 20-day range ceiling at $107.63 is first resistance; 20-day MA support at $94.47 - EEX TTF front-month open: Settled Friday at €79.51 (+10.50% WoW); €82.05 is the 52-week high; any Middle East headline pressuring LNG routes challenges that level at Monday open - Gulf foreign ministers' weekend meeting: Initial reports suggested some diplomatic restraint on crude prices, watch Monday statement for ceasefire or escalation signal --- GAS MARKET - EEX Dutch TTF gas front-month closed the week at €79.51 (+10.50% WoW), sitting at the 95th percentile of its 52-week range (€26.60–€82.05); EEX TTF Cal+1 closed at €59.22 (+11.40% WoW), the full curve repriced - EEX NBP front-month settled at €81.25 (+10.25% WoW); Cal+1 at €61.87 (+10.85% WoW) - NYMEX Henry Hub front-month closed the week at $2.83 (-5.03% WoW), below both its 20-day MA ($2.85) and 50-day MA ($2.85), sitting -12.9% below its 200-day MA ($3.25); US/Europe gas divergence is the dominant structural theme - Aurora Energy Research (Montel): Q4 spike risk "larger than prior years" given low EU storage; November–December flagged as the most dangerous months - EU total storage at 67.7% (+1.3pp WoW); Germany 55.3% and Netherlands 51.4% are the system's weak points; Italy 84.1% and France 75.4% better positioned --- LNG - Platts JKM LNG front-month settled Friday at $24.88 (+3.58% WoW), at the 100th percentile of its 52-week range ($9.45–$24.89), a new 52-week high; 20-day MA support at $23.28 - Strait of Hormuz carries ~80% of LNG shipped north to Europe via Bab al-Mandeb; Houthi capture of Mayun Island and Mocha port represent direct route risk to Atlantic cargo flows, watch Monday for any tanker diversion data - Yamal LNG (17.4 million t/year) expected to continue Europe deliveries to year-end despite drone strikes and looming 2027 EU ban (Montel trader consensus); Europe front-running ban with increased Russian LNG imports ahead of deadline - South Korea and UK trade department both requesting Russian LNG sanctions exemptions, watch for UK government response Monday; any grant reduces European competition for Atlantic replacement cargoes - ADNOC/XRG signed new LNG supply agreements with RWE and SEFE; Kino Aski/Naftogaz MoU for Canadian LNG, long-term supply diversification underway, no near-term volume impact --- EUROPEAN POWER - EEX German baseload power front-month settled Friday at €163.08 (+8.95% WoW); Q+1 €171.59 (+8.62% WoW); Cal+1 €132.03 (+9.19% WoW) - French power day-ahead settled €171.48 (+15.97% WoW); EEX FR Base Cal+1 €89.54 (+13.11% WoW); FR Peak Cal+1 €101.93 (+19.78% WoW), French forward curve repricing aggressively on supply risk premium - Italian day-ahead settled €202.80 (+14.69% WoW), largest premium in the continental grid; Italy Base Cal+1 €151.57 (+7.96% WoW) - Spark spreads narrowing: EEX TTF front-month gained +10.50% WoW vs EEX German Power front-month +8.95% WoW, gas rising faster than power; gas-fired generation margins compressing - Dark spreads widening: VanEck Coal ETF (Newcastle proxy) fell -2.96% WoW vs German Power front-month +8.95% WoW, coal down, power up; coal-fired generation margin improving heading into Q4 - EEX EUA front-December (+1.60% WoW to €85.18) adds modest compression to clean dark and clean spark spreads, but the coal price decline is the dominant signal for clean dark spread direction - EEX NORDIC Base M+1 settled €104.45 (+12.49% WoW); Q+1 €111.76 (+13.81% WoW), Nordic repricing sharply on hydro deficit concerns as Oslo temperatures move below 10°C in week-2 - South Australia NEM spot closed Friday at A$-4.53/MWh (negative); Victoria A$-5.00/MWh, Southern hemisphere renewables oversupply episode; NSW spot A$71.40/MWh (-12.86% WoW) --- CARBON / EMISSIONS - EEX EUA front-December settled Friday at €85.18 (+1.60% WoW), underperforming gas (+10.50%) and power (+8.95%); policy event risk elevated this week - UKA spot settled Friday at £61.83 (+4.48% WoW), outpacing EUA on a WoW basis; with GBP/EUR at 1.17 (+0.22% WoW), cross-currency hedging flows relevant for institutional positioning - Monday EU ETS (EEX) and UK ETS (ICE) auctions are the first price discovery events of the week; EU Parliament internal battle over reform pace (rapporteur Liese vs. political opposition) makes the clearing tone a directional signal for the week - CBAM aluminium threshold vote due this week, lower threshold = more industrial exposure = modest bullish for EUA demand - RGGI Q3 auction cleared at an all-time high above $37 last week, US carbon market signal; confirms allowance scarcity dynamic functioning --- OIL & PRODUCTS - ICE Brent crude front-month settled the week at $104.32 (+8.35% WoW); 20-day MA $94.47, 200-day MA $84.93; +23.2% above 200-day MA at the 77th percentile of its 52-week range ($58.92–$118.35) - NYMEX WTI crude front-month settled at $99.99 (+9.61% WoW); briefly topped $104 intraday Friday before retreating; 20-day range high $102.48 is the near-term resistance; +25.2% above 200-day MA - ICE Brent front-month vs NYMEX WTI front-month spread: $4.33 Brent premium, compressed as US refinery stress (98% utilisation, White House weighing Defense Production Act invocation) tightens WTI domestically - OPEC Basket settled Friday at $114.89 (+16.64% WoW); Dubai crude $116.42 (+16.23% WoW); Urals $103.70 (+19.61% WoW), Middle Eastern and Russian benchmarks surging on supply disruption premium - NYMEX ULSD heating oil front-month settled Friday at $4.99 (+9.67% WoW); 20-day MA $4.53, 200-day MA $3.43; at the 97th percentile of its 52-week range; diesel crack spreads at all-time highs per Bloomberg; US diesel retail above $6/gallon (Rigzone) - NYMEX RBOB gasoline front-month settled at $3.31 (+3.44% WoW); 20-day MA $3.28, holding above moving average but underperforming distillates as driving season wanes - IEA Friday report: global stocks drew at 3.1 million bpd in August; Energy Aspects (Amrita Sen, CNBC Friday) called the market at an "inflection point" with further price increases expected given inventory drawdowns and China volume recovery (7.2 million bpd September imports per Kpler) - COMEX gold front-month settled Friday at $4,390 (+0.96% Friday; -0.88% WoW); 20-day MA $4,473, 200-day MA $4,529, trading below both moving averages at 43rd percentile of 52-week range; WoW decline consistent with mild ICE DXY strength (99.12, -0.04% WoW) --- TECHNICAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEK Instrument — Friday Settlement — 20d MA — Key Resistance — Key Support ICE Brent front-month — $104.32 — $94.47 — $107.63 (20d high) — $94.47 NYMEX WTI front-month — $99.99 — $88.98 — $102.48 (20d high) — $88.98 EEX TTF front-month — €79.51 — €70.18 — €82.05 (52w high) — €70.18 NYMEX Henry Hub front-month — $2.83 — $2.85 — $2.85 (20/50d MA) — $2.52 (52w low) NYMEX ULSD front-month — $4.99 — $4.53 — $5.06 (20d/52w high) — $4.53 Platts JKM front-month — $24.88 — $23.28 — No overhead resistance (52w high) — $23.28 --- POSITIONING & COT *(CFTC data as of 8 September 2026)* - NYMEX WTI crude: Managed money net long +139,339 lots (+19,720 WoW), aggressive long addition; OI grew +48,975 lots WoW; most bullish positioning print across the energy complex - ICE Brent crude (CFTC): Managed money net long +707 lots (+1,432 WoW), near-flat despite +8.35% WoW price surge; Brent speculative positioning dramatically lags the price move; large potential for longs to add on confirmation, or disorderly unwind if support breaks - NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas: Managed money net short -96,677 lots (-7,154 WoW, adding shorts), bears extending in US gas even as European benchmarks surge; structural divergence trade - NY Harbor ULSD heating oil: Managed money net long +16,004 lots (-4,981 WoW), trimming ULSD longs into price strength despite record crack spreads; OI stable at 271,261 - NYMEX RBOB gasoline: Managed money net long +92,926 lots (+3,663 WoW), modest addition; seasonal demand narrative maintaining longs near driving season close --- GEOPOLITICAL RISK CALENDAR - Saudi pipeline (ongoing): East-West system shut post-Thursday drone strikes; restoration timeline unknown; carries 3–4 million bpd, primary binary risk for Monday crude session - Hormuz/Bab al-Mandeb (ongoing): Houthi control of Mocha + Mayun Island; 6.2 million bpd of oil/products at risk; ~80% of Europe-bound LNG transits this corridor; VLCC rates at $800k/day - China-Philippines: Polymarket "military clash before 2027" resolved to 100% (24h surge +39.5pp, $747k volume), watch for South China Sea shipping lane impact on Asian LNG routing and JKM risk premium - Iran regime: Polymarket at 8% for regime fall before 2027; internal parliamentary fractures on security legislation noted (OilPrice.com Saturday); non-trivial tail - Russia-NATO: Polymarket at 20% for military clash by Dec 2026; Russia entering Orikhiv at 100%; Zelenskyy-Putin talks by year-end at 8% - OPEC Monthly Report (Sunday) and IEA Monthly Report (Monday): Back-to-back fundamental updates in a week where physical supply is actively disrupted, divergence between agency outlooks and live flow data likely --- BANK HOLIDAYS & REDUCED LIQUIDITY - No European exchange closures Monday 14 September: EEX, ICE Europe, Euronext operating normally - No US NYMEX/CME/NYSE holidays this week - No major Asian exchange closures flagged - Effective liquidity warning: Geopolitical-driven thin conditions persist regardless, Saudi pipeline status and Hormuz transit data can move ICE Brent by multi-dollar increments on low-volume Sunday evening electronic opens; position sizing accordingly for Monday open