Houthi Strikes and Hormuz Closures Drive ICE Brent to $104 as August Producer Prices Reaccelerate
ICE Brent front-month reached $104 as Hormuz supply collapses and Houthi strikes pushed crude past $100, while August producer prices reaccelerated to 0.4%.
ICE Brent crude front-month stood at $104.32 per barrel as of Saturday morning (2026-09-12). The benchmark broke through $100 for the first time in three months after Houthi fighters struck oil facilities in southern Saudi Arabia — and that move has since fed into U.S. wholesale inflation data.2,5
August producer prices rose 0.4% at the wholesale level, Bloomberg reported, while the August consumer price index rose 0.2%, both powered mainly by energy costs. The two prints show crude's break past $100 has begun lifting costs further up the supply chain.6,7
The crude price surge unfolded in stages. ICE Brent front-month touched $100.03 on Tuesday (2026-09-08), the first breach of that level in three months, Yahoo Finance reported. The benchmark pushed to $100.45 in early trading on Wednesday (2026-09-09), then settled at $101.21, its highest close since May 22, when it last traded above that level, Rigzone reported. A brief intraday move to $100.69 on July 23 had not held at the close.2,3,5
The Houthi attack struck Jazan, a refinery complex on Saudi Arabia's southern coast with a processing capacity of 400,000 barrels a day.2
Strait of Hormuz flows extended the shock. Shipping through the strait, which moved 8 million to 9 million barrels a day before fighting resumed on August 30 and accounts for roughly 20% of global crude flows, dropped below 2 million barrels a day in the aftermath, Rystad Energy chief economist Claudio Galimberti said. Gulf crude exports have fallen to roughly 11 million barrels a day from 18 million before the conflict began.2,4
Ukrainian strikes on Russian refinery infrastructure added a secondary layer of concern. Russia accounted for roughly 10% of global diesel exports before 2022; progressive drone campaigns have cut into that capacity, tightening refined products at the same time crude supply has contracted. The two pressures have moved in the same direction.4
"Oil investors are expressing their view about the impact of the latest bout of escalation in the Middle East in an unambiguous way," said Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates.3,4
China's rebound in crude imports added further support. Bloomberg reported the move reflects improving refinery processing margins, resumed fuel exports, and commercial restocking as refiners rebuild inventories. Chinese demand is rising into a supply base already constricted by conflict.1
OPEC+ kept October production targets at September levels, adding no immediate supply cushion to the tightening market, the chief investment officer of Zaye Capital Markets noted. An unnamed bank flagged a path to above $120 if Gulf output stays 4 million barrels a day below pre-war levels.3,2
But the IEA forecasts global oil consumption falling 1.6 million barrels a day this year as higher fuel costs and trade disruption weigh on demand, the Zaye CIO added, putting a ceiling on how far prices can run if disruptions ease.3
Product markets tracked crude. RBOB Gasoline futures stood at $3.31 per gallon and Heating Oil (HO=F) at $4.96 per gallon as of Saturday morning (2026-09-12). WTI crude (CL=F) held at $99.99 per barrel, having gained more than 2% on Wednesday (2026-09-09) alone.4
Gulf crude exports already run 7 million barrels a day below pre-war levels, and the extent of damage to the Jazan facility remains unclear. Until Hormuz throughput recovers or alternative supply routes compensate for what the strait has lost, the market has little to anchor a sustained retreat from current levels.2