New Nuclear Nations Commit Billions as SMR Costs Still Exceed Power Prices
Barclays warns conventional nuclear and SMR costs outstrip market power prices, clouding investment cases from Bangladesh to the Gulf even as sector funding tops $2 billion.
Around 80% of global primary energy still comes from oil, gas, and coal, securities.io reported on Wednesday (2026-09-09). That persistent dependence on carbon-emitting fuels is the commercial premise driving a wave of first-reactor commitments from emerging markets, and it is sustaining capital flows toward nuclear even where project economics do not yet close.8
Bangladesh's $12.65 billion Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, built with Russian support, is approaching its most consequential operational test, oilprice.com reported in July (2026-07-17). It is the largest infrastructure commitment in the country's history. How it performs will be studied carefully by South Asian and Gulf governments weighing similar decisions without any domestic nuclear operating experience.5
India secured a uranium supply agreement with Australia in July (2026-07-08), during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit, Livemint reported. The deal opens a new procurement channel for a country planning significant nuclear expansion and positions Australia as a direct supplier to an Asian market growing more competitive over uranium access. The uranium ETF URA stood at $46.86 on September 10 (2026-09-10), up 0.13% on the session.4
China published its 15th Five-Year Plan for a new-type energy system in late June, incorporating a domestic nuclear build-out alongside an active push to export reactor technology to Southeast Asian and other regional markets, The Diplomat reported in July (2026-07-17). That puts Beijing in direct competition with Western vendors for the procurement contracts of first-time nuclear buyers across Asia.6
Several Southeast Asian governments are revisiting nuclear after energy supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict raised fuel costs and reliability concerns, the Associated Press reported from Bangkok in March (2026-03-25). The competition to attract AI-focused data centers is adding pressure: countries need reliable firm power that variable renewables cannot deliver around the clock.3
The electricity demand driving these decisions is not in dispute. IEA data show US data-center power consumption is set to rise from 34.7 GW in 2024 to 106 GW by 2035, more than three times current levels, according to Forbes reporting from May (2026-05-28). The IEA put global investment in data centers at roughly $580 billion in 2024.2
Private capital has moved in response. SMR startups have raised more than $2 billion since early 2024, The Economist reported, while fusion ventures separately raised $2.6 billion in the twelve months to July 2026. The total nuclear market, including both conventional and advanced reactors, could reach $1 trillion, with nuclear representing 40-60% of that figure, the publication estimated.1
The cost data push back against that optimism. Barclays has assessed that both conventional nuclear and SMR costs exceed the market price for power. For Bangladesh, which is financing Rooppur partly through Russian state credit, the gap may be bridgeable through concessional terms, but the structure creates long-term dependency on a vendor that controls both the technology and the fuel supply.1
Joe Dominguez, chief executive of Constellation, told The Economist he expected 7-10 GW of additional capacity from incremental upgrades to the US fleet, and that big tech purchasing commitments could bring 30 GW to market that would not otherwise develop. Those figures apply to established markets with decades of operating history. Bangladesh and Gulf states starting from nothing face a different set of calculations.1
Japan, South Korea and the United States announced a new nuclear cooperation framework in early September (2026-09-05), oilprice.com reported, partly to provide an alternative vendor network to China and Russia for procurement decisions across Asia and the Middle East. But the financing terms that Moscow and Beijing can offer to first-time buyers may remain difficult for Western vendors to match, even with government backing.7
Bangladesh's Rooppur plant is the most concrete near-term test for this cohort of emerging nuclear markets. If it reaches commercial operation on schedule and delivers power close to projected costs, the pipeline of similar programs across the Gulf and South Asia may move faster than current SMR project timelines suggest. If it overruns or underperforms, state-financed nuclear built on Russian or Chinese vendor terms faces harder political scrutiny in every other aspiring market that has not yet signed a contract.5,1