Trump Rules Out Return to Iran Ceasefire Terms, Keeping ICE Brent Above $100
Trump's rejection of the June ceasefire framework and constrained Hormuz flows leave crude supply unlikely to normalise before 2027.
ICE Brent crude front-month held at $101.00 a barrel on Thursday (2026-09-10), sustained by US President Donald Trump's signal that he has no interest in returning to the terms of a June ceasefire with Iran. Rigzone reported on Thursday (2026-08-27) that Trump had told mediators as much, casting doubt on any near-term recovery in energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.5
The supply consequences are direct. Crude is up more than 40% since the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran began in late February, according to Rigzone. Oil traders monitoring cargo activity estimate that between 6 million and 8 million barrels a day now transit the Strait of Hormuz, well below pre-conflict volumes. With those flows constrained and no diplomatic resolution in sight, prices have found a floor well above their starting point for the year.5
The August escalation that preceded Trump's ceasefire rejection included fresh US strikes on Iranian tankers. On Wednesday (2026-08-26), those strikes triggered a 1.2% gain in ICE Brent crude to $95.68 a barrel and a 0.9% rise in NYMEX WTI crude to $91.05, according to the Free Press Journal. ICE Brent crude front-month has since added further ground to reach its current level.6
The disruption was most acute in late spring. US military strikes on Iran on Thursday (2026-06-04) drove oil sharply higher while Tehran simultaneously claimed it had shut the Strait to all commercial vessels, TradingKey reported via Ada Derana. By Thursday (2026-06-11), NYMEX WTI crude futures had climbed more than 2% intraday to cross $92 a barrel, with ICE Brent crude futures rising 0.5% to exceed $95.2 On Friday (2026-05-01), when the blockade appeared most entrenched, Brent crude futures for July reached $111.59 a barrel, Livemint reported.1
A June ceasefire brought temporary relief. ICE Brent crude jumped as high as $87 a barrel by Tuesday (2026-07-14), the first time it had reached that level since June, NBC News reported.3 But the recovery was incomplete. By Wednesday (2026-08-12), ICE Brent crude was trading at $89.60 in European hours and NYMEX WTI crude at $83.90, OilPrice.com reported, noting that US claims of normalised Hormuz traffic ran directly counter to Iran's stated position.4
Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee, has counselled restraint throughout. "There have been many false starts to ceasefires already, so the market is hesitant to move prematurely," he told Rigzone. Prices have moved anyway.5
Kavonic also flagged a secondary constraint. Attacks on Russian oil and refining infrastructure have started cutting overall Russian supply by up to around 10%, with an even larger impact on refined products, he said. Two separate disruptions running simultaneously tighten the overall supply picture beyond what Hormuz flows alone would imply.5
US crude inventories are not providing much cushion. The American Petroleum Institute reported a draw of 2.6 million barrels in the latest weekly data, with additional volumes withdrawn from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the Free Press Journal reported. Reserve releases can slow near-term price spikes but do not replace the volumes missing from constrained Hormuz transits.6
The EIA, in a forecast published on June 9, 2026, projected that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would not return to pre-conflict levels before early 2027. That forecast came before Trump publicly rejected the ceasefire framework. Given the current diplomatic posture, even that timeline looks optimistic.2
NYMEX WTI crude front-month was at $96.08 a barrel on Thursday (2026-09-10). Any formal diplomatic breakdown or fresh Iranian statements on Hormuz access represent the next concrete trigger — and given the track record of false starts Kavonic described, the market will likely move before the diplomacy resolves.5