Kuwait and Qatar Push Hormuz Crude Flows Back to 70% of Pre-War Levels
Vortexa data shows seven-day volumes near 10 million barrels a day, up from 4 million in mid-July, but ICE Brent front-month above $100 suggests traders remain unconvinced.
ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $101.66 a barrel as of 2026-09-09, more than $27 above the below-$74 trough it reached in late June when a peace deal briefly restored confidence in Strait of Hormuz transit. The gap between that floor and the current price reflects lingering doubts about the durability of the recovery in Gulf crude flows.3
Vortexa reported that the seven-day average of oil moving through the waterway was close to 10 million barrels a day as of Monday (2026-08-24), far above mid-July lows when flows had crashed toward 4 million barrels a day after Iran declared the strait closed in early June. Traders separately put throughput at 7 to 8 million barrels a day, a range that still implies considerable capacity offline relative to pre-war operations.5,6
Kuwait and Qatar are responsible for a substantial share of the rebound. The two countries collectively exported 2 million barrels a day through Hormuz before the outbreak of the Iran conflict; traders say they have now recovered to 70% of that combined rate. Both followed the United Arab Emirates in routing supply through the chokepoint using shuttle services and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.5,6
The mechanics of each country's return differ. Qatar's recovered volumes have moved largely on the commercial tanker fleet, traders said. Kuwait has gone further: having rebuilt enough throughput to reenter the spot market, it is now offering cargoes directly to buyers — access to Middle Eastern barrels that was effectively cut off during the conflict's most acute phase.5
The scale of what has not yet recovered is large. In 2025, Hormuz handled 18.2 million barrels a day of crude oil and refined products, representing nearly 20% of global oil supply and roughly one-quarter of worldwide seaborne crude trade. Current flows at 7 to 10 million barrels a day leave 8 to 11 million barrels a day offline relative to those benchmarks. Asian buyers, who account for nearly 80% of Hormuz oil flows, bear the most exposure to any renewed disruption.1
Getting here was not straightforward. Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the strait closed in early June, and ICE Brent front-month climbed toward $95 a barrel as the US launched new strikes on Iranian targets. A peace agreement signed on June 17, 2026 triggered an immediate surge in traffic: roughly 20 million barrels passed through the strait in the following 24 hours, and Brent fell below $74 within days. But on July 21, 2026, a Kuwaiti oil products tanker was struck by a projectile near Oman, and Brent briefly climbed back above $90.2,3,4
The June 17 agreement included a 60-day period of toll-free passage. That window expired on August 16, 2026, more than three weeks before Wednesday's session (2026-09-09). No publicly disclosed arrangement has replaced it. ICE Brent front-month above $101, alongside Vortexa flows approaching 10 million barrels a day, suggests the market is still pricing something for that gap.3
Qatar's position adds an LNG dimension. Platts JKM LNG front-month traded at $24.38 per million British thermal units as of 2026-09-09, with no apparent disruption to LNG cargo flows reflected in the price despite the ongoing crude export recovery from conflict conditions. Qatar is one of the world's largest LNG exporters, and any reversal in its export infrastructure would test that insulation quickly.1
Kuwait's reentry into the spot crude market is the clearest sign yet that at least one Gulf producer has rebuilt enough operational confidence to sell competitively. Sustaining those volumes will depend on whether the shuttle-and-transfer model that has replaced normal transit can hold without the formal passage guarantee that expired in August.5