UK gas faces 60% cold-snap price jump, analyst warns, with storage buffers depleted
A Montel analyst warning of a 60% UK gas price surge comes against record-low European storage and a market still repricing from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
A prolonged UK cold spell could push gas prices 60% above current levels to their highest point since the 2022 energy crisis, an analyst told Montel on Wednesday (2026-09-09).4
European gas storage has fallen to a record low after the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran squeezed global supply, Reuters reported on Wednesday (2026-08-05), reviving memories of the 2022 crisis that drove inflation higher across the continent. David Lewis, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, described the situation as "very risky" given how little cushion exists ahead of the winter demand season.3
The supply shock originated in Middle East LNG flows. Goldman Sachs estimated the conflict-driven disruption would reduce near-term global LNG supply by about 19%, a figure that rattled European benchmarks when fighting first broke out. Around 25% of Europe's total gas supply is LNG, according to Chris Wheaton, oil and gas analyst at Stifel, so any sustained reduction in seaborne cargoes pulls directly on storage.2
ICE Endex TTF front-month gas had already surged 35% on Tuesday (2026-05-19) to more than €60 per megawatt-hour and was roughly 76% higher on the week by that point, CNBC reported. The contract sat at €75.83/MWh at 08:15 UTC on Wednesday (2026-09-09), holding those war gains without giving them back.2 [price block]
The UK market tracks the continental benchmark but with its own cold-snap sensitivity. National Balancing Point gas has historically shown wider volatility than TTF during winter demand spikes, partly because the UK's storage capacity is limited relative to consumption. The analyst's 60% scenario requires a prolonged cold episode, not a brief temperature dip.4
What makes a cold snap particularly dangerous at this point in the calendar is the entry level for storage. European sites are beginning September at levels ordinarily associated with mid-winter drawdowns, leaving almost no margin for error before heating demand peaks. A sustained chill in October or November would accelerate withdrawal when LNG cargoes remain constrained by the Hormuz situation.3
The power market parallel comes from Italy. Analysts said on Thursday (2026-05-21) that Italian spot prices could soar to EUR 320/MWh, more than double then-current levels, as the Iran war drove gas prices higher and a cold snap compounded the pressure. That scenario was for Italy, not the UK, but it illustrates the multiplier gas costs impose on power when heating demand peaks.1
Market signals broadly favour the bullish read, with 14 signals weighted toward higher prices and a directional strength of 77%. But some traders have taken the opposite view. ICE Endex TTF front-month carries a bearish contrarian reading on a geopolitical driver, reflecting the view that the war premium is already embedded in prices. [consensus]
Asian LNG prices offer one cross-check. JKM stood at $24.38/MMBtu at 12:10 UTC on Wednesday (2026-09-09), well below the highs seen immediately after the conflict's outbreak. The Atlantic basin remains the marginal supplier to both Europe and Asia, and any sustained cold spell in either region draws from the same pool of available cargoes, limiting how quickly European buyers could redirect additional supply. [price block]2
The dominant uncertainty is now weather. The analyst's 60% upside scenario stands or falls on whether the UK sees a prolonged cold episode. If that forecast firms up, the ICE Endex TTF front-month sitting at €75.83/MWh becomes the floor rather than the ceiling.4