Solar Overtakes Wind in Global Power as India's Evening Coal Demand Climbs
Ember data show solar reached 10% of global electricity in H1 2026, but the shift has deepened a daily demand gap that fossil fuels are still filling.
Solar energy generated 10% of global electricity in the first half of 2026, the first time it has exceeded wind's share, according to an Ember report published on 12 August (2026-08-12). The figure was up from 8.9% in H1 2025 and 5.6% in H1 2023 — three years that doubled total solar output from 769 terawatt-hours to 1,564 TWh. Wind did not fall; solar simply grew faster.5
The generation profile qualifies the headline. Solar met more than 25% of global electricity demand between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. on an average day in H1 2026, then fell to near zero from 8 p.m. to 5 a.m. Globally, renewables supplied only about 40% of the increase in total energy demand over the period, meaning fossil fuel consumption still rose in absolute terms despite record solar additions.5,4
India illustrates the pattern most sharply. Solar reached a record 10.9% share of India's power mix in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026-27, crossing the 10% threshold for the first time, according to Asian Power. But grid curtailment of solar was rising alongside output, and peak demand hit 271 GW — a volume the grid was already struggling to absorb cleanly.3,2
The Ember data from 12 August (2026-08-12) put specific numbers on the midday effect. Fossil generation in India averaged 125 GW at 1 p.m. in H1 2026, down from 135 GW at the same hour in H1 2023 — a 10 GW displacement over three years of rapid solar build-out.5
After sunset, the direction reverses. Fossil generation during non-sunny hours averaged 168 GW in H1 2026, up 22 GW from H1 2023. Output peaked at 174 GW at 7 p.m., leaving a gap of nearly 50 GW between the midday low and the evening high. Coal fills most of it.5
Coal's annual trajectory is shifting, but gradually. Carbon Brief analysis from January (2026-01-12) showed coal generation in India fell 3.0% year-on-year in 2025 — a 46 TWh reduction — and in China by 1.6%, or 90 TWh: the first simultaneous decline in both countries in 52 years, as renewable additions grew large enough to cover demand growth without burning more coal.1
China's scale puts India's progress in context. China added more than 300 GW of solar and 100 GW of wind in 2025, both records for any country, while electricity demand grew 5% year-on-year. Yet the two countries together drove 93% of the rise in global power sector CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2024. Single-digit percentage annual coal drops are a different order of magnitude from what that baseline implies.1
Ember estimated that batteries could shift 34% of new daily solar generation into non-sunny hours in 2026, based on projected additions of 459 gigawatt-hours of battery capacity. Those additions are projected, not confirmed, and dispatch economics — whether evening discharge beats grid balancing revenue or arbitrage — are not yet settled.5
Newcastle coal held at $137.75 per tonne on Tuesday (2026-09-08), flat on the day, with a coal equity ETF off 1.35% in the same session. The market is not pricing a near-term disruption to Indian thermal demand. Ember's own projection that 459 GWh of new batteries shifts only 34% of new solar generation into evening hours suggests the 50 GW daily swing in Indian fossil dispatch will not close quickly. Indian battery procurement figures for fiscal year 2026-27 are the clearest near-term test of how fast that changes.5