UAE fast-tracks second Hormuz bypass pipeline as blockade enters 11th week
Abu Dhabi is doubling its export route around the Strait of Hormuz, a direct bet that Gulf shipping lanes stay contested well beyond the current crisis.
DP World is reportedly in talks to build a new multipurpose port and container terminal in Fujairah, a signal that Dubai's planners are no longer treating the current Hormuz disruption as a one-off. The Strait reopened less than a month ago before closing again, and the infrastructure planning now underway suggests Gulf operators expect recurring closures, not a clean resolution.6
That context frames Abu Dhabi's earlier announcement in sharper relief. The UAE will accelerate construction of a new oil pipeline to double its export capacity through Fujairah by 2027, the government's Abu Dhabi Media Office said on Friday (2026-05-15). The 406-kilometer link from Abu Dhabi to the Gulf of Oman coast is designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blockaded for nearly 11 weeks during the Iran war.2,1
The existing Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, known as ADCOP or the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, can carry up to 1.8 million barrels per day and has been the UAE's only alternative export route since the waterway closed. The strait carried 20% of global oil and seaborne gas before the conflict. ICE Brent front-month crude stood at $99.34/bbl and Dubai crude at $98.71/bbl as of 2026-09-08, with energy prices broadly elevated since the closure began.2,1
The acceleration follows Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed's approval of the expansion plan. Doubling Fujairah's export capacity by 2027 would give the UAE two parallel pipelines to the east coast, a redundancy no other Gulf producer currently holds.2,3
Saudi Arabia has already demonstrated what such infrastructure can do under duress. Aramco ramped up its own east-west pipeline capacity to 7 million bpd in eight days, keeping about 60% of the kingdom's pre-war exports flowing despite the blockade. The UAE is now trying to build a comparable buffer, but from a much thinner base.2
ADNOC is targeting 5 million bpd of production capacity by next year, a goal brought forward by three years. The company said in May 2024 that capacity had reached 4.85 million bpd and has not provided an update since. The UAE's energy minister told Reuters last year that output capacity could reach 6 million bpd if necessary.2
The International Energy Agency projects total UAE output will exceed 5.2 million bpd in 2027, a figure that assumes the country sustains its post-OPEC production trajectory. The UAE's departure from the cartel in April came after weeks of missile and drone strikes by fellow OPEC member Iran, a rupture that analysts said exposed fractures in the alliance.5,4
The pipeline expansion carries obvious commercial logic. The timeline raises harder questions. Completing a second 406-kilometer line by 2027, in a region where construction supply chains are strained by wartime demand, is ambitious even by Gulf standards. ADCOP itself took years to reach its current 1.8 million bpd capacity.2,3
There is also the arithmetic problem. The UAE's current capacity of roughly 4.85 million bpd already exceeds what ADCOP alone can evacuate. Once the new line is built, combined east-coast capacity would reach roughly 3.6 million bpd against a projected output of 5.2 million bpd in 2027, leaving a meaningful gap even in the best-case scenario.2,5
Aramco's eight-day ramp to 7 million bpd proved that Gulf exporters can move quickly when pipelines exist. The UAE lacks installed infrastructure, not ambition. Until the second line is commissioned, Abu Dhabi remains dependent on a single 1.8 million bpd artery, leaving more than 3 million barrels a day with no bypass route if the strait stays shut.2
ADNOC has not published an update on operational capacity since May 2024. That silence leaves traders guessing at how much headroom actually exists in the system. VIX stood at 15.72 as of 2026-09-08, suggesting options markets have not yet moved to price in a prolonged closure as a base case. The gap between production targets and east-coast evacuation capacity is the figure worth tracking as construction progress — or the absence of it — becomes the next piece of evidence the market will need to assess.2