Rosneft H1 Profit Falls 18% as Revenue Stagnates Despite Higher Output
Net profit dropped to RUB 200 billion even as liquids production climbed, exposing the strain of sanctions-driven logistics costs on margins.
Rosneft reported first-half net profit of RUB 200 billion (about $2.31 billion) on Monday (2026-08-31), down from RUB 245 billion a year earlier even as production rose.4
Revenue was nearly flat at RUB 4.29 trillion against RUB 4.26 trillion in H1 2025, which means the profit decline came not from a revenue collapse but from costs eating deeper into a stagnant top line.4 When output climbs and revenue barely moves, every incremental barrel has to work harder to cover the costs of rerouting, refinery downtime and the narrower buyer pool that sanctions have created.
Liquids output rose to 3.69 million barrels per day in January-June 2026, driven by higher volumes from offshore projects, completion of repairs at some assets and the easing of government production cuts.4 Gas production also increased, reaching 1.42 million barrels of oil equivalent per day on new developments in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District.4 On the upstream side, Rosneft is running well. The problem sits downstream and in the cost structure.
Refining throughput in Russia fell to 35.5 million metric tons year-on-year due to "maintenance and repair operations as well as the continuing logistical constraints," the company said.4 Those are the same bottlenecks that have reshaped Russian crude flows since western sanctions tightened, forcing more barrels toward Asia and compressing domestic refining economics. On the St Petersburg commodities exchange, Rosneft sold 3.8 million metric tons of gasoline and diesel in the first half; domestic petroleum product sales totalled 18.8 million tons.4
EBITDA rose to RUB 1,296 billion with a margin of 30 percent, which Rosneft attributed to revenue dynamics and cost control.4 That is a reasonable margin by international standards, but the spread between EBITDA and net profit is where the real pressure shows — it is in that gap that the costs of sanctions, cargo rerouting and refinery downtime become visible.
ICE Brent crude front-month was at $97.50 per barrel in early Tuesday (2026-09-08) trading, up 0.21%, while Urals was at $86.07 per barrel. [LIVE PRICES] The Urals discount to Brent reflects the continued cost of diverting cargoes and the narrower set of buyers willing to take Russian crude. Moscow has managed the redirect at scale, but not without a price.
Russia has revised its 2025 oil export forecast up to 240.1 million tons from a previous 229.7 million tons, even as European buyers have largely exited.1 Russian oil now accounts for around 3% of EU imports, down from roughly 30% in 2021.1 The volumes have been rerouted east, but Asian buyers — aware of their leverage — have extracted steeper discounts than European refiners once paid.
Rosneft's annual report pointed to changes in output quotas in compliance with decisions by the Russian government as a driver of production trajectory.3 That government lever has been the dominant variable on Rosneft's upstream numbers. The easing of cuts in H1 helped liquids output; any reversal in quota policy in the second half would directly reverse that trend.
Globally, oil production increased by 2.24 million barrels per day in 2025 to 74.85 million barrels per day, with OPEC+ accounting for 55.9% of total output according to OPEC data.2 Kazakhstan alone raised output by 239,000 barrels per day to 1.78 million barrels per day in 2025.2 More supply from within the alliance constrains the price environment that Rosneft needs to turn production gains into profit gains.
Rosneft's H1 figures show what higher output against flat revenue does to net income when logistics costs remain elevated and the refining segment is under pressure. The EBITDA margin held, but the headline profit number moved the other direction.4
For traders, the variable to track is whether Moscow eases production quotas further in the second half. Liquids output at 3.69 million barrels per day in H1 2026 was already ahead of where the quota regime might have suggested, and if cuts ease further, upstream volume growth will accelerate.4 But upstream gains mean little if the downstream remains constrained by logistics and refinery outages — and there is no indication in the H1 results that either of those pressures has eased.4