Oman Lays Out 5.7 GW Solar Build-Out as Gulf Producers Hedge Against Crude Reliance
Oman is adding 7.7 GW of renewables and battery storage by 2030 while keeping crude output near 1 million bpd, a diversification play other Gulf states are watching.
Oman's Energy Minister Al Aufi confirmed over the weekend (2026-09-06) that the sultanate plans to add around 5.7 GW of solar and more than 2 GW of wind capacity, alongside 1 GW of battery storage, by the end of the decade.5 The announcement puts concrete numbers on a strategy that has been signalled for years but lacked specifics until now.
Oman is not a marginal producer buying green credentials cheaply. Al Aufi said average crude and condensate production sits around 1 million bpd, gas output exceeds 151 million cubic metres a day, and LNG exports run over 11 million metric tonnes per year.5 The build-out is designed to run alongside those hydrocarbon flows, not replace them.
Two 500 MW solar plants in the Wilayat of Manah in Al Dakhiliyah province started operating in January 2025, giving the country its first utility-scale solar at a combined 1 GW.5 The reference point for what preceded them is modest: the Dhofar I wind farm, commissioned in 2019 in southern Oman, has 50 MW of capacity.5 The scale-up from that baseline to the targeted 5.7 GW of solar alone marks a fundamental change in ambition.
Three additional 1 GW solar projects — Kamil Solar II, Dhofar, and Mahadah — are expected online in 2029 and 2030.5 If the full solar target is met, capacity would roughly six-fold within four years, a pace that will test project financing pipelines and grid integration capacity simultaneously.
The government has introduced new national policies to expand green energy and cleantech industries and to encourage private investment, per Al Aufi's remarks.5 The policy push is partly about attracting foreign capital into a market historically dominated by state-led hydrocarbon development. Private financing for utility-scale solar in the Gulf has become easier to secure as regional power demand grows, but Oman's project track record remains thin.
The Gulf supply environment has shifted materially around Oman. The UAE's exit from OPEC allowed it to push crude output above 3.8 million bpd in June, near record levels last seen in April 2020, according to two sources cited by Zawya on Monday (2026-07-06).3 Oman, not an OPEC member, runs roughly a quarter of the UAE's current production rate, which limits its leverage in regional pricing dynamics but also insulates it from quota politics.5,3
Hormuz disruptions remain a live constraint on Gulf supply chains. EIA forecasts from June 2026 assumed the strait would stay effectively closed near-term, with oil shipments resuming in the third quarter.2 Nearly 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the strait in 2025, per the IEA.1 ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $96.28/bbl early Monday (2026-09-07), keeping hydrocarbon revenue incentives strong for producers across the region.
Oman's LNG business faces competitive pressure regardless of the renewables push. Asian LNG buyers, priced against JKM at $24.02/MMBtu early Monday (2026-09-07), have multiple supply options as Atlantic basin volumes grow. Oman's 11 million metric tonnes of annual LNG exports place it in a mid-tier of global suppliers — large enough to be a regular counterparty for Asian buyers, but without the scale to anchor long-term price negotiations.5 European pipeline alternatives have also expanded: Norway supplied the EU with 86 Bcm of pipeline gas last year, or 54.4 percent of total EU supply, according to the European Commission.4
The central question the renewable build-out leaves unanswered is whether it changes Oman's export calculus or simply its domestic power mix. Battery storage of 1 GW can smooth solar intermittency onshore, but it does not create a green molecule export channel.5 Oman has not announced a large-scale green hydrogen project pipeline of the kind Saudi Arabia and the UAE have promoted, even as the renewable programme is framed under energy diversification goals.
The more immediate payoff is fiscal. Displacing domestic gas consumption with solar frees more of that 151 million cubic metres a day for LNG export or reinjection into oil fields.5 Whether the three 2029-2030 solar projects stay on schedule — and whether any portion of renewable output is eventually committed to electrolysis — are the two signals that will determine the programme's long-term export value.