Oakland Institute Finds Energy Transition Took 26% of Critical Mineral Demand in 2024
An Oakland Institute report using IEA data shows clean energy and EVs consumed barely a quarter of global demand for six key minerals last year, complicating the case for mining-led supply buildouts.
The energy transition accounted for just 26% of combined global demand for copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and magnet rare earths in 2024, according to an Oakland Institute analysis published Sunday (2026-09-06) drawing on International Energy Agency data.4
Oakland assigned the remaining 74% to construction, conventional transport, industrial machinery, defense, electronics and other uses. Investment theses built on decarbonisation as the dominant demand driver — with large-scale mining expansion as its unavoidable corollary — are working with an incomplete picture of where these minerals actually go.4
The mineral-by-mineral breakdown makes the point sharply. Uses outside renewable power and EVs accounted for 83% of nickel demand, 79% of magnet rare-earth demand, 71% of copper demand, and 68% of both cobalt and graphite demand in 2024. Construction alone consumed 30% of global copper. Stainless-steel production consumed roughly two-thirds of global nickel, dwarfing any clean-energy application for the metal.4
The Oakland study drew on IEA data throughout, including the agency's Net Zero by 2050 projections. That roadmap projects battery-electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel-cell cars and vans rising from 11 million in 2020 to almost 2 billion by mid-century. Even at that scale, Oakland calculated EVs would consume 15.7 million metric tons of copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and magnet rare earths in 2050 — equal to 23% of a projected 68.2-million-ton combined total.4
Design choices could narrow those figures substantially. Oakland found that combining lower vehicle ownership, smaller batteries and best-case recycling could reduce annual lithium demand in 2050 by as much as 92% relative to the most lithium-intensive scenario. Separately, a UC Davis model found that smaller EV batteries alone could cut annual lithium demand for U.S. light-duty vehicles by 42% in 2050 even if car dependence persisted at current rates.4
China's 2025 data shows how quickly the demand mix can shift while leaving the supply question open. Solar generation rose 40% year-on-year in 2025, adding 336.5 terawatt-hours, while wind power increased 13%, contributing a further 133.6 TWh, according to the Energy Institute's Statistical Review of World Energy. Coal consumption in China held flat in 2025, the first year in a decade without growth.2
Electric vehicles crossed 50% of new car sales in China for the first time in 2025. Energy storage capacity rose 81% between 2024 and 2025. China and the United States together held 74.6% of global battery energy storage system capacity at end-2025, according to data reported by Asian Power.2,3
Global BESS installed capacity is projected to grow sixfold between 2025 and 2030, at a compound annual growth rate of 42%, with China and the U.S. expected to remain dominant markets. Meeting projected power demand growth through 2030 would require annual grid investment to rise by roughly 50% from a base of $400 billion, the IEA estimates.3,1
What the Oakland report does not model is how conventional mineral demand — the 74% tied to construction, manufacturing and defense — might itself shift as electrification spreads or as prices incentivise substitution. The 92% lithium reduction scenario also depends on recycling rates and behavioural changes that have not materialised at scale. Both gaps mean the debate over how much mining the energy transition actually requires has no settled answer, and any supply-side strategy that treats decarbonisation as the sole demand variable carries real exposure to the other three-quarters of the market.4