Oman Sets 7.7 GW Renewable Target for 2030, Leaning on Private Capital to Deliver
Oman's 7.7 GW renewable target by 2030 faces a Gulf project pipeline Rystad says is running 3-12 months behind schedule due to regional conflict.
Oman has set out plans to add 5.7 GW of solar capacity and more than 2 GW of wind power, alongside 1 GW of battery storage, by 2030, according to a report published on Sunday (2026-09-06) by Oilprice.com. Three further solar installations — Kamil Solar II, Dhofar, and Mahadah, each at 1 GW — are expected to come online in 2029 and 2030. New national policies introduced by the government aim to draw private investment into the build-out.5
Oman sits at the intersection of two realities: a major hydrocarbon economy and a state whose gas-fired power sector consumes fuel it could otherwise sell abroad. Average crude and condensate output runs around 1 million barrels a day, gas production exceeds 151 million cubic metres daily, and LNG exports top 11 million metric tonnes a year, figures cited by Minister Al Aufi in the same report. Displacing domestic gas burn with cheaper solar generation frees that gas for export markets priced above domestic tariffs.5
Oman's starting point is modest. The Dhofar I wind farm, commissioned in 2019 in southern Oman, delivers just 50 MW. Two solar stations with combined 1 GW capacity began operations in January 2025 in the Wilayat of Manah in the central Al Dakhiliyah province. Getting from 1 GW to nearly 9 GW in five years requires a pace of deployment Oman has not yet demonstrated.5
The push places Oman in the same broad trajectory as larger Gulf producers. ADNOC has committed $23 billion to decarbonisation, including $4 billion to ship onshore carbon-free electricity to its offshore operations, while Masdar is targeting 100 GW of renewable installations globally by 2030, according to the Economist. Those are UAE programmes backed by significantly larger sovereign balance sheets.1
State firms across the Gulf spend less than 5% of their capital on decarbonisation on average, against roughly 15% for the Western oil majors, according to Wood Mackenzie. Oman has not published a capex breakdown for its renewable programme, and the emphasis on attracting private investors suggests Muscat is not planning to finance this primarily from the state budget.1
Regional geopolitics have already disrupted the project calendar. The Middle East conflict is pushing delays of three to 12 months onto renewable energy projects across active pipelines in the region, with logistics and financing conditions tightening, Rystad Energy reported. Oman is not a direct conflict zone, but it draws from the same contractor markets and financing channels as neighbours under greater pressure.3
European appetite for Gulf and North African clean power is building, though not yet directed at Oman. Germany launched a $30 billion scheme called Sila Atlantik with Morocco to develop what would be the world's longest intercontinental undersea power cable, a 4,800 km link designed to deliver up to 15 GW of solar and wind power to European markets. The EU separately committed up to $794 million to upgrade Egypt's electricity network, structured as a $690 million EIB Global loan combined with up to $104 million in European Commission grants. Oman sits outside these corridors for now, but the pricing signals from those deals will shape what Gulf renewable exports could eventually fetch.4
Western oil companies, which might once have provided competitive pressure on Gulf producers to accelerate green investment, have themselves pulled back. BP now plans its 2030 hydrocarbon output to sit just 25% below 2019 levels, rather than the 40% reduction it once committed to, according to the Economist. That retreat reduces one source of urgency for Gulf states monitoring how quickly their own transitions need to move.2
Oman's credibility on its 2030 targets will rest on the commissioning timelines for those three 1 GW projects due between 2029 and 2030. Rystad's assessment of regional delays of up to a year means the window for slippage is narrow. Any procurement or financing disruption to Kamil Solar II, Dhofar, or Mahadah would leave the sultanate's renewable base well short of its stated goal as the decade closes.5,3