Venezuelan Crude Exports Capped at 1.25 Million Barrels by Jose Port Failures
Port equipment failures at Jose terminal are capping Venezuelan exports at 1.25 million barrels per day, limiting the market impact of Washington's sanctions relief.
Tankers waiting up to 30 days to load at Venezuela's main export terminal have made visible a ceiling on the country's crude recovery that production figures alone do not reflect. That ceiling sits at around 1.25 million barrels per day — the level Kpler reported as Venezuela's current output following Washington's removal of sanctions and the return of American companies after the fall of the Maduro government.5,2
Jose terminal, responsible for roughly 70% of Venezuela's crude exports, is the bottleneck. The facility has suffered repeated loading interruptions caused by equipment failures, power outages and oil quality problems. Vitol and Trafigura, operating under a Washington-approved commercial agreement, had exported more than 140 million barrels of Venezuelan crude and fuel since January. The pace, though, is capped by what Jose can physically load.5
The grade profile of Venezuelan output adds a second layer of difficulty. Rystad Energy projects roughly 75% of the country's production through 2028 will come from heavy, extra-heavy crude and bitumen, with the Orinoco Oil Belt accounting for around 60% of total output. Extra-heavy, high-sulfur barrels require complex refinery configurations available at a limited number of facilities worldwide. Kpler analyst Naveen Das has said recovering Venezuelan production is in direct competition with Iranian and Russian barrels for those refinery slots, primarily in Asia.3,2
That competitive overlap was reducing buyer interest as of mid-August (2026-08-18). Indian refiners, among the natural customers for heavy sour crude, were shifting toward US, Brazilian and Guyanese grades as Russian and Venezuelan crude became less attractive amid shipping disruptions and rising premiums from Gulf suppliers.4
ICE Brent crude front-month stood at $94.97 per barrel on September 5, recovering from $89.10 at Friday (2026-08-28)'s close, when both major benchmarks posted weekly declines of between 4% and 5.5%. NYMEX WTI front-month was at $91.22 on September 5, up from $82.89 at the August 28 close. Venezuelan supply developments were among the factors in that week's bearish move.6
The forward supply estimates put the recovery in proportion. Kpler sees Venezuelan output rising to 1.5 million barrels per day by end-2026, contingent on port performance improving. Rystad Energy forecasts a 17% production increase, roughly 194,000 barrels per day, between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the fourth quarter of 2028. Neither projection is large enough to shift global supply balances materially.3,2
Chevron has the clearest near-term path to incremental output. The company maintained operations through the sanctions period and estimates it can boost its locally produced share by half within two years. That share currently runs at around 240,000 barrels per day, produced jointly with PDVSA. Successful execution would add roughly 120,000 barrels per day — meaningful for Venezuela's fiscal position but modest for global supply.1
Washington is promoting a $100 billion reconstruction program for Venezuela's energy sector. The emphasis has been on increasing crude production rather than the port and terminal infrastructure where the actual delay sits.5
Vitol and Trafigura have demonstrated sustained buyer appetite, moving 140 million barrels since January. But neither can accelerate shipments past what Jose can load. Whether reconstruction capital reaches terminal infrastructure, rather than remaining concentrated upstream, is what separates the current ceiling from Kpler's end-2026 target.5,2