NYMEX October Gas Rejects 50-Day Moving Average as Record U.S. Output Caps Seasonal Rally
October futures stalled at the 50-day moving average Tuesday (2026-09-01) with near-115 Bcf/d supply absorbing Golden Pass export pull and ERCOT demand.
NYMEX October natural gas futures pushed to $2.943 early Tuesday (2026-09-01) and stalled. The 50-day moving average sat at $2.915. The contract turned lower, ending that session at $2.886, down $0.049 or 1.67%. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month was at $2.92 per million British thermal units early Friday (2026-09-04), recovering slightly but still below the resistance that halted Monday (2026-08-31)'s attempted recovery.7
Production is doing most of that work. Lower-48 output running near 115 Bcf per day has absorbed ERCOT summer cooling demand and the incremental feedgas pull from two new export terminals, keeping the market well-supplied even as late-season heat persists across Texas. Every rally in this contract since early summer has met the same arithmetic.7
EIA data put first-quarter 2026 Lower-48 marketed production at 117.2 Bcf/d, a 4% year-on-year increase, with the agency forecasting a further 3% rise for the full year, concentrated in the back half. Permian output is projected at 29.2 Bcf/d in 2026, up 6% from 2025. Haynesville, which responds most directly to gas price signals, is expected to grow 6% this year and 8% next. Multiple basins expanding at once limits the scope for any single disruption to shift the national balance.1
Two new liquefaction facilities were supposed to shift that equation. Golden Pass LNG shipped its first cargo on April 22, 2026, becoming the tenth U.S. LNG export terminal. Combined with the Corpus Christi and Corpus Christi Liquefaction Stage 3 trains, U.S. feedgas demand from new capacity has risen. EIA projected LNG gross exports at 16.7 Bcf/d in Q3 2026, rising to 18.0 Bcf/d in Q4 and 18.7 Bcf/d in Q1 2027. Rigzone reported in July 2026 that Daniel Yergin said U.S. LNG growth was exceeding all expectations.4,5
But the export ramp has not cleared the domestic surplus. Storage sat 138 billion cubic feet above its seasonal average in early June (2026-06-06), a gap that made traders reluctant to pay up for weather risk even when ERCOT demand was running hard. FX Empire noted the trajectory pointed toward a tighter October if builds kept missing and air conditioning demand held hard through July and August. That condition is expiring.3
The Strait of Hormuz closure, in effect since February 28, 2026, has kept international benchmarks well above U.S. domestic prices. EIA reported the closure pushed ICE Endex TTF front-month to $14.80 per million British thermal units in its aftermath. JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, traded at $23.76 per million British thermal units early Friday (2026-09-04). The spread to Henry Hub keeps LNG export economics in the money, supporting throughput at Corpus Christi and Golden Pass.2
Yet buyers have started pulling back. Domain-b reported that July 2026 LNG import volumes were the lowest since 2021, with European and Asian buyers growing cautious about additional cargoes while international prices remain elevated. ICE Endex TTF front-month fell to €71.76 per megawatt-hour by Thursday (2026-09-03), off 2.59% on that session. If European demand stays soft, feedgas nominations at U.S. terminals slip and the supply overhang widens.6
That leaves ERCOT. Texas power consumption has backed gas use through summer, but cooling degree days decline mechanically from here. Storage reports over the next three to five weeks will show whether the summer draw narrowed the gap that was 138 Bcf above seasonal norms in June. EIA expects Permian capacity to deliver 10% output growth in 2027, a trajectory that does not ease even if late-summer demand exceeds expectations. The October storage number will show which force is winning.3,1