Rystad Cuts Russia's 2027 Crude Forecast as Drone Strikes Move Upstream
Rystad Energy warned in August that Ukrainian drone attacks are now constraining Russia's upstream oil sector, cutting its 2027 crude forecast to 8.6 million bpd.
ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $95.63 a barrel on September 3 (2026-09-03) as analysts absorbed a downgrade from Rystad Energy that puts Russia's crude production on a steeper decline path than previously modelled. Rystad revised its Russian output estimate for 2026 to an average of 8.95 million bpd — roughly 90,000 bpd below the consultancy's prior forecast — with further falls to around 8.6 million bpd projected for 2027.6,7
The revision, published between August 15 (2026-08-15) and August 18 (2026-08-18), marks a qualitative shift in how Rystad characterises the damage. Ukrainian drone attacks have been hitting Russian refineries, ports and tankers for over a year. What changed is the reach. "The increasing frequency and effectiveness of drone attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure is no longer affecting only refineries; it's constraining the country's upstream sector as well," said Daria Melnik, Rystad's Vice President of Oil Markets, in a statement to Rigzone on August 18 (2026-08-18).7
Russia averaged 9.2 million bpd in 2025, according to IEA data, so the Rystad cut implies output has already fallen close to 250,000 bpd from that baseline. The IEA made a comparable move in July (2026-07-10), lowering its 2026 Russia forecast by 85,000 bpd to 8.9 million bpd and its 2027 estimate by 150,000 bpd to 8.8 million bpd. Rystad's 2027 figure of 8.6 million bpd sits 200,000 bpd below that post-revision IEA number.3,6
The monthly data shows just how volatile output has been. Russian crude production fell to 9.009 million bpd in May 2026, the lowest in a year according to Rigzone reporting from June 12 (2026-06-12), as Ukraine stepped up its infrastructure campaign. IEA estimates show a partial recovery, with June output reaching 8.86 million bpd from 8.74 million bpd in May. July brought a sharper bounce: output climbed 100,000 bpd back above 9 million bpd, Newsweek reported on August 6 (2026-08-06), after Ukrainian strikes had dragged June to its weakest reading this year.2,3,5
The strike campaign driving these swings has been precise and persistent. Russia's Saratov refinery halted oil processing on July 9 (2026-07-09) after drone damage. The Syzran refinery on the Volga stopped operations on July 12 (2026-07-12) when a primary processing unit was hit. On July 14 (2026-07-14), the Salavat petrochemical complex in Russia's Bashkortostan region also went dark, industry sources told The Independent. Three major sites in five days.4
But the July output rebound is difficult to read as sustained, given what Rystad said about inventory buffers. The consultancy warned that Russia has little scope to absorb further disruptions, with onshore crude inventories already at levels where sustained production cuts would quickly tighten supply. Previously, Moscow could draw on storage to smooth the impact of strikes. That cushion is diminishing.7
The Urals discount reflects the market's current assessment. Urals crude was at $81.02 a barrel on September 3 (2026-09-03), a gap of around $14.60 below ICE Brent front-month at $95.63. Russian barrels are still moving, but at a steep penalty for buyers working within or around the G7 price cap framework. A widening Urals discount alongside firmer Brent reflects the view that Russian supply disruptions reduce global availability even as the specific barrels find alternative buyers in Asia.6
Sanctions have added structural pressure on top of the physical damage. Russian gas now accounts for just 18% of EU imports, down sharply from around 45% in 2021, while Russian oil's share of EU imports has collapsed from roughly 30% to 3%, according to Trading Economics data. New EU measures announced in early August targeted crypto operators used to facilitate Russian oil transactions, adding another compliance layer for counterparties still trading Russian crude.1,5
August production data, when it becomes available, will give the clearest read on whether the July rebound was genuine recovery or a short-term gap-fill between escalating strike campaigns. Rystad's warning about depleted inventory buffers means the margin for error on each successive attack is narrowing. If Ukraine sustains its focus on upstream infrastructure rather than just refining capacity, the 8.6 million bpd 2027 forecast may prove optimistic rather than conservative.6,7