Dual Waterway Disruption Holds ICE Brent Near $96 After July's $100 Peak
Houthi naval blockade of Saudi Red Sea ports and a months-long Hormuz closure together threaten millions of barrels of daily exports with no resolution in sight.
ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $96.46 a barrel on Thursday (2026-09-03), down 0.41% on the session — its highest sustained range since Houthi rebels struck two Saudi oil tankers in late July and briefly pushed the contract above $100. The pullback from that peak has been gradual, not decisive.7
The $100 breach on July 23 (2026-07-23) came on the fifth consecutive day of gains after the Houthis escalated from commercial shipping attacks to a formal naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, declared on Monday (2026-07-20). Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export route, the corridor Riyadh had been using since Iran disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, became the new pressure point.5,7
The exposure is considerable. In the week to July 17 (2026-07-17), Saudi Arabia shipped 5.9 million barrels per day out of its two terminals at Yanbu, a record export pace according to tanker tracking data cited by Rigzone. That record reflected the kingdom's dependence on the Red Sea after Hormuz closed. It also represented precisely what the Houthi blockade was designed to threaten.3
About 4 million barrels per day of Saudi crude redirected from Hormuz now passes through Bab el-Mandeb. A MarineTraffic analyst said on Wednesday (2026-07-22) that the "Bab el-Mandeb risk picture is deteriorating." Some 7 million barrels per day and more transit the strait in total, according to Reuters, though that is a fraction of the roughly 20 million barrels per day that used to flow through Hormuz before the disruption.4,5
Physical rerouting was already underway before the blockade fully formed. A Greek-owned Suezmax, the Amazon, departed Yanbu on Tuesday (2026-07-21) with more than 1 million barrels of crude and switched its declared destination to the Suez Canal, Rigzone reported. Supertankers cannot transit the Suez Canal at all, forcing them onto the far longer Cape of Good Hope route, adding weeks to voyage times and raising freight costs sharply.3,1
The Hormuz closure predates the Houthi escalation by months. Iran moved to shut the strait more than three months before early June 2026, pulling roughly 13 million barrels per day from the market, OilPrice.com reported. The IEA has noted that existing pipelines cannot replace those volumes, and building new pipeline capacity takes years and billions of dollars.1,8
Against these combined disruptions, ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI front-month have both risen more than 50% over the twelve months to July, with Saxo Bank citing Bloomberg data showing crude had gained as much as 65% in the year to the week of July 13 (2026-07-13). NYMEX WTI front-month was at $92.29 a barrel on Thursday (2026-09-03), down 0.16% on the day.5
Not all signals point upward. Dubai crude front-month, changing hands at $98.60 per barrel on Thursday (2026-09-03), has been flagged as carrying bearish pressure driven by storage dynamics, diverging from the broader bullish consensus in Brent and WTI. U.S. crude inventories posted a 2 million barrel build, and the July rebound had already recovered 90% of June's losses before the Houthi escalation renewed upward pressure.6
FXEmpire has identified a full closure of Bab el-Mandeb as the scenario capable of pushing prices to $120, citing lost volumes, higher freight rates, and reduced market efficiency as supertankers are excluded from the Suez Canal. Goldman Sachs expects ICE Brent to retain most of its recent gains through July and August, supported by declining global inventories and lower Middle East production.2,7
Ships have been turning away from the southern end of the Red Sea since the blockade announcement on Monday (2026-07-20), Rigzone reported. Whether the Amazon's rerouting through Suez becomes the norm for Yanbu cargoes, or whether shippers judge the blockade too fragile to reprice freight markets decisively, is the near-term physical signal that will either reinforce ICE Brent's current floor or test it.3,4