Ofgem Faces 315 Data Centre Applications as UK Grid Queue Swells to 125GW
Britain's electricity connections queue has tripled in under a year, with data centre projects alone seeking capacity nearly double the country's peak demand.
Britain's contracted electricity demand offers climbed from 41GW in November 2024 to 125GW by June 2025, a near three-fold increase driven overwhelmingly by data centre applications, according to analysis published Wednesday (2026-09-02) by Pinsent Masons partner Ronan Lambe in Energy Voice. Data centre projects account for at least 80GW of that growth.6
Those numbers are large against actual consumption. Britain's peak electricity demand during 2025/26 ran at approximately 45GW, Ofgem data show. The 80GW of data centre connection requests in the queue is nearly double that figure, and Ofgem estimates around 315 projects are currently seeking connections, representing roughly 73GW of demand between them. Many will never be built.6
Analysts had flagged the trajectory. In the week of 2026-08-03, analysts told Montel that projected data centre power demand was approaching three times Britain's current peak winter consumption, with grid capacity constraints the primary check on how many projects reach commercial operation. The queue expansion has put the regulator under pressure to act, because speculative applications displace investment-ready generation and storage projects competing for the same connection slots.5
Ofgem moved on Wednesday (2026-07-29), launching a consultation on a proposed commitment fee for data centre applicants. The fee would fall within a range of £237,500 to £712,500 per MW, equivalent to roughly 2.5% to 7.5% of average project costs, the regulator said. For the largest projects, that translates to tens of millions of pounds in upfront charges, Energy Voice reported.4,3
The proposal is designed to deter developers who have secured grid offers with no firm intention of using them. Whether the fee range is calibrated high enough to flush out speculative applications without deterring genuine AI infrastructure investment is the central debate in the consultation. Ofgem did not set a single figure — the range itself preserves room for final calibration once the process closes.4
The grid is not positioned to absorb demand of this scale quickly regardless of how the queue is filtered. Last year, Ofgem approved a £24 billion investment programme to maintain gas distribution networks and expand the power grid. But the data centre queue tripled in roughly seven months, faster than any near-term investment programme can accommodate.4
Gas-fired generation is being discussed as one bridging answer. Analysts told Energy Monitor that gas offers better grid stability than variable renewables, with the flexibility to start and stop quickly and the reliability of constant output. ICE Endex TTF front-month gas was at €71.96/MWh on Wednesday (2026-09-02), up 3.1% in early trading, a price that complicates the economics for data centre operators trying to lock in long-run power costs against gas-backed supply contracts.1
Globally, the pressure is broadly similar in direction. The IEA said global electricity demand grew 3% in 2025, following 4.4% growth in 2024, and projects an average annual growth rate of 3.6% through the end of the decade, driven by AI infrastructure, electric vehicles and industrial electrification. Data centre consumption is set to reach 945 terawatt-hours by 2030, roughly 3% of global supply, Energy Monitor analysis found. Meeting that growth would require a 50% increase in annual grid investment from the current $400 billion, the IEA said.2,1
The UK is an acute case rather than an outlier. The consultation's final fee structure will filter the queue by attrition: developers with thin balance sheets may withdraw without Ofgem needing to formally reject applications. The harder test is sequencing 73GW of stated data centre demand against a grid investment programme sized for a far smaller load, and who absorbs the cost of the mismatch if that build-out slips.6,4