Brent at $94.96 as US-Iran Strikes and Hormuz Standoff Persist into September
ICE Brent front-month reached $94.96 on September 2, well above July's conflict-era levels, as neither Washington nor Tehran has offered terms to reopen the strait.
US and Iranian forces exchanged strikes on Monday (2026-07-13), pushing ICE Brent front-month 4.3% higher to above $79 a barrel in London morning trading, according to Rigzone. By Wednesday (2026-09-02), ICE Brent front-month had climbed to $94.96 a barrel. ICE Endex TTF front-month gas was up 3.14% at €71.96 per megawatt hour in European morning trading on the same day.5,4
The Strait of Hormuz channels 15-20% of the world's oil supply and a near-equal share of global LNG, according to the Economist. Every cargo rerouted or delayed since the conflict began has forced buyers to seek alternative supply at higher cost, and those costs have been accumulating in futures markets since the spring. A fragile ceasefire in May had already broken down before fighting resumed in July.2
On Monday (2026-07-13), US President Donald Trump escalated beyond the military exchange, vowing to establish US control over the Strait and charge commercial ships a toll for passage, Foreign Policy reported. That shifted the stated US position from defending freedom of navigation to asserting sovereignty over one of the world's most transited chokepoints, creating fresh uncertainty for shipping companies operating under established maritime law.6
Iran had already moved to foreclose the main workaround. When tanker operators attempted to use the Omani maritime corridor as an alternative to Hormuz, Iran fired on those vessels, Foreign Policy reported on July 15 (2026-07-15). An Iranian commentator close to the negotiating team told state television that Tehran faced a binary choice: hold Hormuz as leverage, or concede it and lose the basis for any settlement worth accepting.7
The conflict was already ten weeks old by mid-May (2026-05-18), when Trump swiftly rejected Iran's latest response to a US peace proposal. Iran had demanded safe passage through Hormuz, regional security guarantees, and security arrangements for Lebanon as part of any deal, the Daily Asian Age reported. Brent futures gave up strong early gains that Monday (2026-05-18) as the diplomatic breakdown registered across crude markets.3
There had been one genuine relief moment earlier in the year. Iran's foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declared on April 17 (2026-04-17) that commercial passage was "completely open," and oil traders pushed ICE Brent front-month down more than 10% to $89 a barrel, pricing in the return of suppressed Gulf volumes, the Economist reported. Trump's rejection of the broader settlement terms reversed that quickly. Mines, mistrust, and missing ships, the Economist noted in May, would keep markets tight for months regardless of any formal declaration.2
European gas markets have not tracked the crude move in a straight line. ICE Endex TTF front-month fell 3% in early trading on Friday (2026-05-15), Montel reported, even as Trump publicly criticised Iran's refusal to fully reopen the strait. Traders appeared to treat the ceasefire as durable enough for LNG supply to normalise. On Wednesday (2026-09-02), with fighting resumed and the Omani workaround closed off, TTF front-month was up 3.14% at €71.96/MWh. German power tracked the move, rising 2.19% to €151.32/MWh on Wednesday (2026-09-02).1
Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee, told Bloomberg that the latest escalation remains "well below a state of open war." That gives crude markets a ceiling on worst-case pricing. But it also implies the conflict can persist at this pitch, with the strait contested and the Omani alternative interdicted, without triggering the kind of emergency diplomatic response that might force parties to a settlement quickly.4
JKM Asian LNG front-month was trading at $23.61/MMBtu on Wednesday (2026-09-02), flat on the session, reflecting relative calm in Asian spot markets so far. That calm could prove brittle. Iran's willingness to fire on Omani-route vessels, as reported on July 15 (2026-07-15), shows an appetite for action beyond Hormuz itself. A direct attack on LNG carriers rather than crude tankers would likely pull JKM sharply higher and feed back into TTF through Atlantic LNG trade flows — the scenario that would pull European and Asian gas pricing into full alignment for the first time since the conflict began.7