UAE Reports 80% June Output Surge to OPEC as Gulf Supply Split Deepens
Abu Dhabi's record crude ramp after leaving OPEC is pulling Gulf supply balances apart, with rival forecasts widening the picture further.
The United Arab Emirates told OPEC it pumped 3.8 million barrels a day of crude in June, an increase of 1.71 million barrels a day from May — roughly 80% in a single month — according to a monthly report seen by Bloomberg on Monday (2026-07-13).7
Two sets of figures now frame Abu Dhabi's June output differently. The IEA, which advises consumer governments, estimated the previous week (week of 2026-07-06) that UAE crude production rose by 900,000 barrels a day in June to an all-time high of 4.1 million a day. OPEC's secondary sources — an average of external consultants and media outlets — also pegged June output at 3.8 million barrels but put the monthly increase at 76%, slightly below the UAE's own submission.7
The gap between those estimates partly reflects methodology, but it also captures something real about Abu Dhabi's position. The UAE left OPEC in May, freeing it from a quota that had capped output at 3.2 million barrels a day despite production capacity of 4.8 million, according to Al Jazeera reporting from 2026-05-20.1 Abu Dhabi also found workarounds for Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz that other Gulf producers had not matched, Bloomberg reported.8
June's numbers mattered for the wider supply picture. Gulf producers raised output by around 3.5 million bpd during the month after flows through the strait partially recovered following the framework agreement between the US and Iran, the IEA said. Non-OPEC+ producers as a group added roughly 1.63 million bpd to reach 60.37 million bpd, with the UAE accounting for more than half of that increase at approximately 940,000 bpd.4
The recovery is real but incomplete. Intermittent disruptions to Hormuz shipping persisted because of security concerns and continued reliance on US naval escorts, leaving regional oil production about 11.4 million bpd below pre-war levels, the IEA said. Global oil production remained around 9.4 million bpd below levels recorded before the US-Israel-Iran war, despite the sharp June rebound.4
Other Gulf states also raised output in June but fell short of pre-war levels, the IEA said.6
The UAE's trajectory extends well beyond a war-driven bounce. Before the conflict began, Abu Dhabi's capacity had grown to 4.8 million bpd while its OPEC quota held it to 3.2 million.1 Freed from that constraint, the IEA projected in a June (2026-06-17) report that total UAE output will reach 5.2 million barrels per day next year, surpassing 5 million bpd for the first time.3
For OPEC, the volume problem is compounded by a demand disagreement. The cartel trimmed its estimates for oil demand growth in 2026 to 800,000 barrels a day, representing a 0.7% increase from 2025.7 That is still far more optimistic than the IEA, which projects world consumption will decline by 1 million barrels a day this year because of the war's impact.7
OPEC oil production fell more than 30% since the start of the war in late February, the cartel said in its May (2026-05-13) monthly update, and even with June's recovery the cartel faces a long road back.2 Analysts note that a historic release of reserves from western countries and China's decision to cut crude imports by around 30% kept prices contained despite the supply disruption.5 ICE Brent crude front-month was at $88.10 per barrel at Friday's (2026-08-29) close, with markets shut over the weekend.
The IEA's supply forecast assumes Hormuz transit keeps recovering: if so, global oil supply is expected to average 102.6 million bpd this year.4 That conditional forecast is the key variable heading into the fourth quarter. How far Abu Dhabi pushes output toward its 4.8 million bpd capacity ceiling — and whether Hormuz disruptions flare again — sets the range between the cartel's bullish demand view and the IEA's contraction scenario.4,1