Goldman Sachs Puts Middle East Oil Exports at 15-16 Million Bpd, Flags LNG and Products as Laggards
Goldman's Friday note shows Gulf crude exports near two-thirds of pre-war levels, but analysts see greater price upside remaining in European gas and refined fuels.
Middle East crude and petroleum product exports have climbed to between 15 million and 16 million barrels a day, Goldman Sachs analysts Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby wrote in a note on Friday (2026-08-28), a recovery the bank said could limit further crude price gains even if tensions in the region persist.5
That total still sits 7 million to 8 million barrels a day below pre-conflict levels. But it marks a near-tripling from the March trough of 5 million to 6 million barrels a day, when the U.S. naval blockade and near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz gutted regional export capacity.5
The recovery leans heavily on what Goldman described as a surge in dark crossings by specialised shippers and a rise in ship-to-ship transfers — a shadow logistics chain that standard vessel-tracking struggles to capture. Traders told Bloomberg during the week of Monday (2026-08-24) that crude alone transiting the strait had reached 6 million to 8 million barrels a day. Goldman's own estimate puts total Hormuz flows, including products, likely close to the U.S. government's 8 million to 10 million barrel a day figure.5,4
Gulf crossings now sit at roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels, Goldman said, a volume large enough to weigh on crude prices. ICE Brent crude front-month stood at $88.10 a barrel as of Sunday (2026-08-30), well below the $119.50 peak reached shortly after the conflict erupted, but well above the $72 low recorded on Friday (2026-06-26) when early Hormuz transit data first showed the blockade loosening.5,2
The pace of the Hormuz recovery has been sharp. Bloomberg's trading sources put total crude transits through the strait at roughly 4 million barrels a day in mid-July; by late August that figure had nearly doubled to 7 million to 8 million barrels a day.4
Official claims have moved ahead of what trackers can verify. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said during the week of Monday (2026-08-10) that regional exports had recovered to 15 million barrels a day and had briefly exceeded the pre-war average of 20 million barrels a day on Sunday (2026-08-16). Vessel-tracking services and commodity analysts said they could not reconcile those figures with observable flow data.3
Iran's own output remains far below pre-conflict levels. OPEC's monthly report showed Iranian crude production fell 19%, or 546,000 barrels a day, to 2.33 million barrels a day in May, a direct result of the sustained U.S. blockade on Iranian ports. Total OPEC crude production averaged 33.13 million barrels a day in May, down 185,000 barrels a day from April, with Iran's decline accounting for the bulk of the move.1
Crude is not where Goldman identifies the greatest remaining price sensitivity. The bank's note flagged that LNG and refined fuel flows out of the Persian Gulf lag the crude recovery. In a sustained disruption scenario, Goldman said it sees "greater price upside to European natural gas prices and deferred oil product prices."5
ICE Endex TTF front-month stood at €66.79 per megawatt-hour as of Sunday (2026-08-30). European storage replenishment heading into the autumn demand season depends partly on whether LNG flows from Gulf terminals close the gap with crude. Goldman's note suggests they have not done so yet.5
Whether dark-fleet shuttle capacity can sustain current crude transit rates near the Goldman-estimated 8 million to 10 million barrels a day, and whether LNG and refined product volumes follow, is what separates the crude story from the gas and products story through September. Crude markets appear to have absorbed much of the supply recovery. Products and gas have not.5,4