Saudi Arabia Masses 16 VLCCs Off Oman as Houthi Attacks Threaten Its Hormuz Bypass
Six months into the Gulf war, a 4-million-bpd shadow tanker network is keeping barrels moving, but renewed Houthi attacks now threaten the main bypass.
Saudi state shipping company Bahri had positioned 16 very large crude carriers off Oman by mid-August (2026-08-18), with three more reportedly on their way, giving the fleet capacity to carry roughly 38 million barrels, a build-up that signals how exposed the kingdom's alternative export corridor has become to renewed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.6
Six months after fighting began in the Gulf, the world's most important oil corridor remains far from normalized. Nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude and refined products moved through the Strait of Hormuz before the war. Iran's blockade trapped 15% of global oil production and a fifth of liquefied natural gas output for almost six weeks, according to the Economist. Even with a ceasefire in place, Hormuz is not fully open to commercial traffic.3,6
The Gulf producers have not sat still. The UAE, Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar are moving more than 4 million barrels per day through a shadow export network of AIS-dark shuttle tankers and ship-to-ship transfers outside the Persian Gulf, oilprice.com reported on August 18 (2026-08-18). Maritime trackers relying on AIS transponders are likely undercounting actual movements; Foreign Policy reported in June (2026-06-11) that real transits through the strait exceeded the roughly 600 that satellite-and-transponder tracking had captured.6,4
Bahri's VLCC positioning points to a second problem. The Red Sea corridor, Saudi Arabia's main Hormuz bypass, now runs through waters where Houthi attacks have resumed. A floating buffer with 38 million barrels of capacity is a contingency measure, not a logistics upgrade.6
Iran's own exports have largely vanished from the equation. Flows fell to below 250,000 barrels per day, Foreign Policy reported, against the nearly 20 million bpd the strait once handled across all producers.4
The storage overhang from the disruption period has not cleared. Gulf states exported 70 million barrels in the weeks after the June ceasefire deal, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. Some 80 million barrels remain in storage and could be released if conditions allow, oilprice.com reported. Analysts noted early in the war that it takes several months for supply tightness to fully materialise in physical markets, and that lag is still working through the system.5
Prices reflect the persistent disruption. ICE Brent crude front-month stood at $88.29 a barrel as of Saturday (2026-08-29), still more than 30% above pre-war levels, according to the Economist. When President Trump announced the ceasefire, Brent had fallen 12% from $103 to $91 within days. The Economist also reported that gas prices remain roughly 40% above pre-war levels; ICE Endex TTF front-month stood at €66.79 per megawatt-hour as of Saturday (2026-08-29).3
American consumers are absorbing a direct share of the cost. U.S. motorists were paying an average of $4.52 a gallon for petrol as of mid-May (2026-05-19), up 52% from before the war, the Economist reported. U.S. commercial crude inventories had declined to around 325 million barrels, Foreign Policy reported, stripping away much of the cushion that normally absorbs supply shocks.2,4
Rerouting by pipeline is years away. Redirecting 50% to 70% of the energy crossing the strait would require new infrastructure across several countries and would not resolve where those pipelines ultimately deliver, oilprice.com noted. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted in August (2026-08-18) that Hormuz would become "irrelevant" within two years as Gulf producers build around it. But 4 million bpd of shadow flows is a fraction of the nearly 20 million bpd the strait once handled.6,1
One market observer told CNBC in May (2026-05-20) that the $110 trillion global economy can be taken hostage by a couple of hundred men with guns across a 50-kilometre stretch of strait. Six months on, Bahri's 16 tankers off Oman suggest the same arithmetic applies to the Bab el-Mandeb. If Houthi pressure on the Red Sea intensifies, Gulf oil faces simultaneous constraints at both ends, and 38 million barrels of floating capacity is the only buffer between Saudi crude and its buyers.1,6