AI Data Center Build Reshapes US Gas Demand and Metals Markets
Global data center electricity use is forecast to jump 26% to 565 TWh in 2026, creating demand signals across gas infrastructure, metals markets, and Asian energy supply.
An analysis published Thursday (2026-08-27) found that AI infrastructure growth is already prompting US power developers to revise capacity plans and natural gas pipeline companies to reassess demand trajectories, with manufacturers of turbines, transformers, switchgear and cooling systems reporting a new source of orders.7
Industry estimates project global data center electricity consumption at approximately 565 TWh in 2026, up from 447 TWh in 2025, according to figures cited in DataM Intelligence research published in mid-July (2026-07-16). Demand is expected to exceed 1,000 TWh by 2030 and approach 1,300 TWh by 2035. The scale of that buildout is only gradually working into commodity spot prices.2
DataM Intelligence forecasts the global AI data center market will grow from $120.74 billion in 2025 to $1,020.83 billion by 2035, a compound annual rate of 22.8%. That much construction requires sustained electricity supply, making natural gas a likely near-term commodity beneficiary given its role as the marginal fuel for most US power grids. But the structural case depends on permitting and financing new generation capacity faster than current project timelines suggest.2
NYMEX Henry Hub front-month gas was priced at $2.89/MMBtu in weekend marks (2026-08-29). JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, stood at $23.17/MMBtu, reflecting the premium Asian buyers pay to source LNG relative to US domestic gas prices.7
US gas storage sat 6.5% above its seasonal average as of late May (2026-05-21), according to data cited by Natural Gas Intelligence, a surplus that has held NYMEX spot prices below the thresholds utility planners typically require to justify new gas-fired capacity investment. Economies.com's analysis suggests natural gas pipeline companies will be among the clearest demand beneficiaries as data center construction accumulates over the next several years.1,7
The metals picture is less straightforward. Iron ore futures in Singapore fell to their lowest intraday level in a year on August 4 (2026-08-04), pulled down by a Chinese construction slump, weakening mill margins, and rising seaborne supply. Myles Allsop, a mining and metals research analyst at UBS in London, said "iron ore fundamentals remain cautious; prices are starting to test the low end of the range."5
Standard Chartered analysts, in a medium-term base metals outlook reported by OilPrice.com in late July (2026-07-22), said prices are likely to take their cue from macro dynamics and shifts in risk appetite. High energy prices and the growing risk of interest rate increases are challenging the AI-driven demand thesis for industrial metals, even as longer-horizon projections remain constructive.4
Asia's demand trajectory adds a geopolitical layer. An analysis by Guy Wolf published August 6 (2026-08-06) argued that the region's energy security still runs through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint Asia does not control, and that deeper, more liquid energy markets are a precondition for sustaining the continent's AI ambitions at scale.6
Japan is making measured progress on that front. Japan NRG's weekly report for July 21 (2026-07-21) recorded power trading volume rising to 11.4 TWh from 7.4 TWh, with the number of trades climbing to 1,398 from 1,031. The government has set AI adoption targets across industry and government with specific measures directed at 2030.3
A recent academic study of 403 US hyperscale facilities operating between May 2024 and April 2025 estimated their electricity use at 68 to 99 TWh, approximately 1.8% of total US consumption under the central scenario. If capacity grows at anything close to DataM's projected rate, that share approaches 5-6% of US power demand by the early 2030s. Iron ore's failure to hold in early August (2026-08-04), even as AI demand projections were being revised upward, suggests commodity spot prices are still weighting near-term Chinese macro pressure over decade-long buildout scenarios. Autumn steel demand in China is the next market test.2,5