Analysts Say EU Gas Prices Won't Revisit 2022 Highs Despite Storage at Two-Decade Low
Storage at 63% of capacity and winter fill targets out of reach, but expanded LNG import infrastructure is the main argument against a 2022-style price extreme.
European gas storage stood at 63% of capacity as of Thursday (2026-08-27), Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed, and analysts cited by oilprice.com said the bloc faces a genuine chance of failing to reach even its softened winter fill target of 75% by November 1. At the current injection rate, hitting that threshold looks increasingly difficult.8
That storage shortfall has not triggered a 2022-style price spiral, and analysts on Montel's Plugged In podcast on Thursday (2026-08-27) argued it is unlikely to. European winter gas prices will probably not return to the record levels set four years ago, they said, with expanded LNG import capacity cited as the leading mitigating factor.7
The 2022 reference point is a steep one. European gas prices peaked above €300/MWh at end-August 2022, propelled by the Russian pipeline supply crisis and recurring threats of cut-offs, Cedigaz data showed.1
The current supply disruption has different origins. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which followed the outbreak of war in Iran at the end of February, stripped out roughly 20% of global LNG supply, the portion typically provided by Qatar, just as European traders had been counting on LNG imports to drive winter restocking, Reuters reported.4
EU gas prices climbed more than 42% through July as a result. A backwardated forward curve compounded the problem by making future delivery less valuable than spot gas, actively discouraging injection, Upstream data showed. ICE Endex TTF front-month settled at €66.79/MWh at Friday's (2026-08-28) close, well off the 2022 peaks but some 13% above the profit-taking pullback on Thursday (2026-08-06), when the contract fell 3.1% to around €59.18/MWh.3,5
Goldman Sachs, in analysis published Monday (2026-08-24), said European gas prices would need to reach approximately €100/MWh by December to incentivize adequate storage fill if the Hormuz crisis persists and keeps Asian LNG prices elevated. That sits roughly 110% above Goldman's own base-case estimate of €50/MWh.6
The EU has progressively softened its fill ambitions as injection rates lagged. An initial 90% fill target for November was relaxed to 80% by December — a change made partly to avoid triggering a pre-winter buying rush that could itself push prices higher, Reuters reported.4
Europe's structural demand shift provides some offset. The continent now consumes roughly 10 to 15% less natural gas than it did in 2021, oilprice.com reported, reflecting a rising renewables share and industrial adaptation after Russian pipeline volumes dried up. But reduced consumption eases price pressure. It does not refill storage.8
Reuters reported in early August (2026-08-06) that EU stocks were just under 58% full, the lowest for that time of year in records going back to 2011 and 12 percentage points behind the level a year earlier. Wood Mackenzie senior research analyst David Lewis described the situation as a "very risky" one.4
Naturgy, the Spanish energy company, warned on Wednesday (2026-07-22) of "likely gas shortages and price spikes" this winter and called for immediate supply measures, Montel reported.2
In the most severe scenario modelled by Reuters, with Qatari LNG absent and a colder-than-normal winter, average day-ahead gas prices could run at €110/MWh across the November-to-March period and leave storage just 10% full by end of March. That would stop well short of 2022's record but would represent a sharp move from current ICE Endex TTF front-month levels and still constitute a severe hit for industrial consumers.4
JKM Asian LNG held $23.17/MMBtu in late-week trading, sustaining the inter-basin competition that keeps Atlantic LNG cargoes oriented toward Asia. Resumption of Qatari flows through the Strait of Hormuz before the autumn injection window narrows is the clearest forward signal for any meaningful shift in Europe's storage trajectory.8,4