Wood Mackenzie data show 35 GW of European data centre capacity proposed since 2023 as uranium ETF slips 5.9%
A surge in European data centre proposals and falling uranium equity prices expose the gap between nuclear's demand story and investor confidence.
The URA uranium ETF closed at $45.57 on Friday (2026-08-28), down 5.89% on the session — a sharp move against a backdrop in which nuclear power is widely cited as the preferred clean baseload solution for surging data centre electricity demand. [LIVE PRICES]
European developers have already proposed 35 gigawatts of data centre capacity since 2023, almost half of it in the UK, according to Wood Mackenzie analysis published in May. That pipeline, if it materialises into connection agreements, would represent a step change in the region's power demand profile, concentrating new load at specific grid nodes rather than spreading it evenly across national systems.1
Wood Mackenzie tracking shows US utilities have already committed to add 116 GW of large load to their networks, equivalent to around 15% of US peak electricity demand. The scale of that commitment illustrates how fast the data centre buildout is reshaping generation planning on both sides of the Atlantic, forcing grid operators to plan connections years ahead of firm demand.1
Europe currently sits at an earlier stage. Aside from Ireland, where Wood Mackenzie estimates facilities consume over 20% of electricity generated nationally, European data centres account for only a small share of national power demand. But the consultancy sees Europe as the next logical hub for deployment, and the 35 GW proposal pipeline suggests developers agree.1
The five largest hyperscalers — companies including Amazon, Microsoft and Google — are forecast by Wood Mackenzie to increase capital expenditure on facilities by 50% to over US$300 billion in 2025. That spending rate compresses the timelines grid operators work with, since hyperscalers tend to want connection commitments before their own investment decisions are finalised.1
Wood Mackenzie's base-case projections, drawn from its Lens Energy Transition Scenarios tool, see global power demand growing at a compound annual rate of just over 2% between 2025 and 2050. The range is wide: Serbia at roughly 30% cumulative growth by 2050, Denmark at 157%. In China, India and Southeast Asia, the consultancy projects demand CAGRs above 5% annually. European growth sits below those rates, but the data centre pipeline changes the shape of the curve significantly.1
German day-ahead power closed at €137.88 per megawatt-hour on Friday (2026-08-28), down 1.16% on the session, while GB day-ahead settled at £165.26 per megawatt-hour at Friday's (2026-08-28) close. ICE Endex TTF front-month gas settled at €66.79 per megawatt-hour on Friday (2026-08-28), off 1.79%, while Dutch THE M+1 closed at €67.42 per megawatt-hour on the same session. At those TTF levels, gas-fired generation remains expensive relative to nuclear baseload in most European dispatch curves, which strengthens the commercial case for contracted nuclear power even as construction timelines lengthen. [LIVE PRICES]
For nuclear developers, a hyperscaler offtake agreement can anchor project financing. But the negotiation cuts both ways. Data centre operators want low, predictable power prices over long periods; nuclear construction risk is notoriously hard to hedge, and cost overruns have repeatedly widened the gap between contracted price assumptions and actual delivery costs.1
MarketsandMarkets projects the natural gas power generation market will reach US$122.49 billion by 2030, a 4.8% compound annual growth rate from this year's estimated base, a trajectory that reflects gas remaining a significant part of the European generation mix even as nuclear ambitions grow.2
Grid connection infrastructure may be the binding constraint before generation capacity. MarketsandMarkets estimates the power transformer market will reach US$41.62 billion by 2030, a 6.5% compound annual growth rate, a figure that points to sustained capital demand for the equipment needed to move power from generation assets to load centres. Adding data centre demand is one challenge; upgrading the wires and transformers to serve it is another.3
The uranium ETF's 5.89% drop on Friday (2026-08-28) sits uneasily alongside the bullish demand narrative. Whether that move reflects broader risk-off sentiment, profit-taking, or genuine scepticism about nuclear construction timelines reaching European data centres before rival technologies do, the packet does not confirm. What it does confirm is that equity investors in uranium are not yet pricing in the demand pipeline at face value. European grid operators formalising the 35 GW of proposed data centre capacity into actual connection agreements would be the first concrete test of how much of that pipeline is real — and the UK's roughly 15 to 17 GW share makes National Grid's next network assessment the most consequential near-term document for gauging whether the buildout translates from proposal into contracted load.1 [LIVE PRICES]