Money Managers Cut Brent Longs for Second Week Running as Prices Climb Past $89
Speculative positioning in Brent and WTI futures shrank through early August even as crude pushed higher, with more managers tilting toward hedging than opportunistic longs.
ICE Brent front-month hit $89.30 per barrel on Friday (2026-08-28), gaining ground that money managers largely missed. In the week ending August 4 (2026-08-04), those managers slashed their net long position in ICE Brent crude futures by 11%, cutting 20,361 lots to 164,722 lots for a second consecutive weekly reduction. NYMEX WTI net longs were trimmed by 7,257 lots in the same period, OilPrice.com reported citing Commitment of Traders data.3
Both contracts were already rising when the position cuts landed. OilPrice.com reported ICE Brent front-month up 2.70% at $85.81 and NYMEX WTI up 2.69% at $80.28 in its August 10 (2026-08-10) coverage. Since then, Brent added roughly another $3.50 to reach $89.30 on Friday (2026-08-28) and NYMEX WTI front-month climbed to $83.40. Managers who trimmed through early August left money on the table.3
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that the energy complex recorded reduced speculative exposure through August 4 (2026-08-04) despite persistent supply risk. Little progress has been made toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, according to the OilPrice.com analysis — a shortfall that would conventionally attract long positioning rather than prompt the unwinding of it.3
The pattern fits a risk-calibration approach. When the plausible range of supply disruptions runs from 3 million to 7 million barrels a day, smaller gross positions limit damage from a reversal while preserving some participation in a further rally.3,1
A Bloomberg Intelligence survey published in May 2026 captured that disposition explicitly. About a quarter of oil market participants expected an increase in hedging and risk-management activity over the next year, against 15% who anticipated more opportunistic risk-taking. Most respondents placed Brent's average for the period at $81 to $100 per barrel, with supply disruptions expected to average 3 million to 7 million barrels a day. Few anticipated outages above 10 million barrels.1
The US-Iran ceasefire struck on April 8 (2026-04-08) has held. But Hormuz remains closed, and ICE Brent front-month at $89.30 on Friday (2026-08-28) sits in the upper portion of that $81-$100 survey consensus, suggesting markets are pricing for sustained disruption without moving fully toward a worst-case scenario.2,1
The EIA's medium-term supply picture complicates the bull case further. The agency projects US crude output reaching a record 14.1 million barrels a day in 2027, a production volume that could absorb several million barrels of Middle East shortfall and limit how far prices can sustainably run if the ceasefire holds through the year.1
Urals crude was offered at $76.55 per barrel on Friday (2026-08-28), a $12.75 discount to ICE Brent front-month. The gap reflects continued sanctions-driven discounting of Russian barrels and, by extension, the premium attached to grades moving through open waterways without a geopolitical haircut. OPEC Basket stood at $87.31 on Friday (2026-08-28). [live prices]
The next Commitment of Traders report covering weeks after August 4 (2026-08-04) will show whether managers rebuilt longs into the subsequent Brent climb or extended their trimming. With Hormuz closed and the EIA flagging a US production ramp through 2027, neither the supply risk nor the medium-term supply cushion has resolved. The position data will eventually have to pick a side.