QatarEnergy Extends LNG Force Majeure to Mid-October as Asian Prices Hold Above $23
Qatar's rolling force majeure has cut 17% of the country's LNG export capacity for six months, squeezing Asian and European buyers before winter.
Asian LNG spot prices stood at $23.41 per million British thermal units on Friday (2026-08-28), according to JKM front-month data, as Qatar's force majeure on LNG shipments passed the mid-August deadline that buyers had been working toward.1,6
Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday (2026-07-22), citing people with knowledge of the matter, that QatarEnergy was preparing to further extend the force majeure through mid-October. It is the third extension since the initial shutdown at Ras Laffan Industrial City in mid-March 2026. Italian energy company Edison had already received a notice pushing the deadline to mid-August 2026, gasworld reported on Tuesday (2026-05-26). Asian and European buyers have been absorbing the rolling extensions since.5,6,7,1
The cargo count has mounted. As of late May (2026-05-26), 17 cargoes — around 2.2 billion cubic metres of gas — had been affected by the force majeure. Edison holds a long-term supply agreement with QatarEnergy for 6.4 billion cubic metres annually to Italy, but the last cargoes under that deal were delivered at the end of March 2026.1
The physical damage explains the extended timeline. QatarEnergy said on March 19 (2026-03-19) that attacks on Ras Laffan could result in about $20 billion a year in lost revenue and take up to five years to repair. Three attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City damaged Trains 4 and 6, which together produce 12.8 million tonnes per annum, roughly 17% of Qatar's total LNG exports. Train 4 is a joint venture between QatarEnergy at 66% and ExxonMobil at 34%; Train 6 runs on a 70-30 split between the same partners.1
The current JKM level extends a rally that began in mid-July. Spot LNG surged 10% in the week around Thursday (2026-07-16) to its highest point since March, as Middle East tensions re-escalated and Strait of Hormuz shipping came close to a halt, oilprice.com reported. On that Thursday (2026-07-16), prices hit $20.2 per million British thermal units, traders told Bloomberg. JKM has since extended those gains to $23.41, though it remains below the $25.40 per million British thermal units that Asian prices reached during the initial March 2026 shock, when the Ras Laffan shutdown and Hormuz closure first coincided, traders said.3,8
European gas markets have not been insulated. ICE Endex TTF front-month traded at €68.01 per megawatt-hour on Friday (2026-08-28). Edison's supply situation illustrates the tightness: with no Qatari LNG delivered since late March 2026 and the force majeure extended to mid-October, Italy's largest long-term supply contract has been effectively dormant for five months.1,7
The aggregate supply shortfall has been substantial. Global LNG markets have lost roughly 20% of daily supply from the Middle East since the conflict began, investing.com reported, colliding with a hotter-than-expected summer and stronger Asian cooling demand. That combination has narrowed the window for European buyers to rebuild winter storage buffers through spot purchases.2
The pre-crisis market structure has reversed. In early 2026, Europe was drawing most available spot LNG cargoes, offering higher prices than a then-sluggish Asian market as inventories declined into the final weeks of winter. The Ras Laffan shutdown in mid-March flipped that within days, turning a regional supply advantage into a global scramble for constrained volumes.4
With the mid-October deadline now the focal point, traders will be watching for any QatarEnergy statement on partial restart capability for Train 4 or Train 6. The company's own five-year repair estimate makes full output restoration before winter implausible. A further extension into November would sharpen winter supply concerns across both benchmarks.1,5