UK Energy Import Costs Rise £4.6bn as Hormuz Tanker Traffic Stays Near Standstill
Government trade data show British crude and refined product bills surging year-on-year while AIS transits through the Hormuz chokepoint hold 90% below pre-conflict norms.
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz held near a standstill as of Saturday (2026-08-22), with AIS-detected transits running approximately 90% below pre-conflict baselines and still declining since late June, oilprice.com reported. ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $89.58 a barrel on Friday (2026-08-28).7
UK government trade data show the cost of that sustained supply squeeze on British importers. Crude import costs rose by £830 million against the same period in 2025, while refined product imports climbed £3.75 billion year-on-year, bringing the combined increase to roughly £4.6 billion. The data reflect cumulative price pressure across months of elevated benchmarks, not a single spike.
EIA data show crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the strait fell to an average of around 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, down sharply from roughly 21.6 million barrels per day before conflict-related disruption took hold.6
In 2025, approximately 18.2 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products moved through the corridor, the Oil and Gas Journal reported, representing nearly 20% of global oil supply and roughly one-quarter of worldwide seaborne oil trade. The strait had also channelled about one-fifth of global LNG trade.1
Only 13 tankers passed through the chokepoint on Saturday (2026-08-22), oilprice.com reported, out of fewer than 20 total vessel transits that day. Of those transiting, 45% were tankers, and oil tankers accounted for 56% of that group.7
The standoff has resisted resolution for months. Trump's proposal on Monday (2026-07-13) to levy a 20% fee on vessels transiting the strait drove ICE Brent crude up roughly 5% to over $87 a barrel on Tuesday (2026-07-14), Live Mint reported. Prices eased after he dropped the fee plan, but did not fully retreat.4
ICE Brent extended gains for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday (2026-08-19), trading around $91.28 a barrel according to Reuters, as the US and Iran showed no signs of agreement.5
Goldman Sachs, in a note dated June 15 (2026-06-15), cut its Brent forecast to around $80 a barrel, expecting Persian Gulf exports to recover faster than anticipated. Prices did not follow. ICE Brent front-month held above that level through late August, even as the bank flagged risks as two-sided.2
The £4.6 billion combined increase in the UK import bill sits alongside similar pressures elsewhere. Ember estimated Turkey's energy import costs will rise by around $14 billion in 2026 on higher oil and gas prices stemming from Hormuz disruption.3
Goldman's projected global oil surplus of 3.2 million barrels per day in 2027 offers some potential forward relief. For now, AIS data show Hormuz transits still declining, US-Iran exchanges of threats have continued into late August, and no framework deal is in place. How quickly vessel operators return to the strait once any agreement materialises will shape the rate at which benchmark prices, and Britain's forward import costs, ease.2,7