Russia Claims Record Half of India's Crude Supply as Delhi Courts US LPG
Russian barrels hit 50.83% of India's July import mix while state refiners push to source at least 15% of 2027 LPG demand from the United States.
Russia's crude deliveries to India hit an all-time high share in July 2026, with Russian barrels accounting for 50.83% of the world's third-largest oil importer's total intake, Reuters reported on August 14 (2026-08-14), citing unnamed trade sources. At 2.47 million barrels daily, that was a 62.4% jump from the same month a year earlier. No other supplier came close: the UAE and Saudi Arabia each shipped well under 620,000 bpd.6
The surge reflects a supply chain redrawn by the Iran war. Since Tehran began restricting passage through the Strait of Hormuz in early March (2026-03-01), India's crude basket jumped from roughly $69 per barrel to over $114 in April (2026-04-30), according to Atlantic Council analysis — a sharp reminder of how exposed India's refinery system is to a single maritime corridor. India imports around 90% of its crude needs, averaging some 5 million barrels a day. Discounted Russian barrels filled the gap Middle Eastern grades could not.2,4
But the record Russian intake carries a specific geopolitical cost. US sanctions enacted this year include 100% tariffs on imports from countries that buy Russian crude, and Indian refiners absorbed roughly 2.47 million bpd in July after a US sanction waiver on those flows had already expired. Kpler data put July Russian flows at approximately 2.45 million bpd, broadly in line with trade source estimates. Reuters noted on August 14 (2026-08-14) that the tariff threat may yet shift the calculation.6
June had been even sharper. Russian crude averaged a peak 2.6 million bpd into India that month — the highest monthly average on record for those flows — before easing to 2.47 million bpd in July, trade sources said. Since India's new fiscal year began on April 1 (2026-04-01), Russian oil has run at over 2 million bpd, making up more than 42% of total imports, up from 37% a year earlier.6
While crude imports tilt toward Moscow, India's LPG procurement is moving in a different direction. State refiners Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. are in talks to expand US LPG purchases under 2027 annual contracts, Rigzone reported on August 13 (2026-08-13). The government has asked the three companies to source at least 15% of India's 2027 LPG imports from the United States under term contracts — up from the first-ever US LPG term deal signed earlier in 2026, which covered about 2.2 million tons, approximately 10% of total inbound LPG shipments.5
The urgency on LPG traces directly to the Hormuz shock. Before the Iran war, the Middle East supplied more than 90% of India's LPG imports. When those flows tightened, Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged government agencies as recently as May 22 (2026-05-22) to accelerate biogas adoption as a substitute cooking fuel, signaling the severity of the supply squeeze on a fuel that remains central to Indian households.1,5
Indian refiners have not written off a Middle Eastern return. Sources told Reuters in June (2026-06-18) that refiners are prepared to scale back Latin American and other spot purchases if the Hormuz strait reopens under an interim Iran deal. Middle Eastern producers had already asked refiners to reinstate full contracted volumes once waterway flows resume, sources said. Some refiners were also considering Iranian crude if sanctions are lifted and banking channels reopen.3
India now sits with Russian crude at record volumes, US LPG contracts under negotiation for expansion, and a conditional Middle Eastern reversal waiting in reserve — all simultaneously. The US tariff threat has not suppressed Russian crude flows; volumes since April 1 (2026-04-01) have run consistently above 2 million bpd. The enforcement timeline on those tariffs, and how aggressively Delhi pushes the US LPG target beyond 15%, is what traders dealing in both Urals-grade crude and US propane cargoes are now pricing around.6,5