Uranium Supply Gap Widens as Nuclear Expansion Outpaces Mine Output

Uranium long-term contract prices reached $86.50 per pound in December 2025—a 14-year high—as global reactor demand of roughly 179 million pounds ran nearly 19 million pounds ahead of primary mine supply, according to UxC. The gap is being bridged by inventory drawdowns that show no sign of reversing. The shortfall has been years in the making. World uranium production totaled roughly 48,000 tonnes in 2022 against demand exceeding 62,000 tonnes, according to the World Nuclear Association. Spot prices were slow to reflect this: uranium traded below $30 per pound for years before breaking $60 per pound in late September 2023. Kazatomprom has made the imbalance worse. The Kazakh state miner, which controls more than 40% of global output, maintained production cuts through 2024 and has since reduced its 2026 output forecast to around 62 million pounds—down from an earlier projection of 85 million pounds, a cut of more than 20 million pounds from original targets. Mines shuttered during years of depressed prices cannot restart quickly, leaving medium-term supply constrained regardless of price signals. France is exposed. Niger previously supplied roughly 20% of Paris's uranium imports—around 1,200 to 1,600 tonnes annually—before the country's 2023 military coup. In June 2025, Niger's ruling junta revoked permits for state-backed Orano and nationalized the Somaïr mine. France has yet to fully replace that volume. Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine added further pressure, with sanctions disrupting enrichment and conversion services and pushing Western utilities to reduce exposure to Russian nuclear supply chains. The U.S. Department of Energy responded in April 2023 with a $1.5 billion commitment to domestic nuclear fuel supply chains. Demand has been reshaped by an unexpected source: artificial intelligence. Analysts estimate a single hyperscale data center requires 300 to 500 megawatts—comparable to a mid-sized city's load. Microsoft secured a $1 billion DOE loan in late 2025 to restart the Crane Clean Energy Center, the Pennsylvania plant formerly known as Three Mile Island Unit 1, targeting commercial operation around 2027. Amazon is advancing plans for up to 12 small modular reactors at its Cascade Advanced Energy Facility in Washington State, targeting nearly a gigawatt of capacity by the early 2030s. Google signed an agreement with Kairos Power for 500 megawatts of advanced reactor capacity starting in 2030. The broader capacity picture underpins the demand case. The International Atomic Energy Agency counted 416 operating reactors with combined capacity of 376.3 GW(e) as of November 2025. The World Nuclear Association projects global nuclear capacity rising from 398 GW(e) in 2025 to 746 GW(e) by 2040, with China targeting 150 new reactors by 2035 providing much of the growth. Japan has restarted several units shut after Fukushima. Globally, 78 GW of capacity is currently under construction. The near-term signal to watch is Kazatomprom's production guidance for 2027. If the company cannot reverse its output cuts, new mine supply from stable jurisdictions—Canada, Australia, the United States—will need to accelerate materially to close the gap. France's ability to secure alternative African supply will test whether other exporters can absorb displaced demand. Any sustained slowdown in China's reactor build programme or Japan's restart schedule would ease pressure, but primary supply is not positioned to meet projected demand without a significant increase in new project sanctions.